As the geopolitical winds change direction, Balochistan is once again in the regional spotlight
In his 1997 book “The Grand Chessboard,” former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski described the critical importance of Eurasia — Eastern Europe to Far East — to US grand strategy and interests. Much of the book focused on the role of Central Asian states that can be used to ensure that no one entity (China, Russia, Islamists) would dominate the region and challenge US primacy. Not surprisingly, post-9/11 neoconservative interventionism by US in Afghanistan tried to create a foothold in the region, albeit with mixed results. This policy has not changed much in the past 14 years.
The US maintains a small but noticeable presence in post-9/11 Afghanistan amid a NATO-ISAF drawdown as it aims to ‘pivot’ and ‘rebalance’ to the Asia-Pacific region. Russia has tried to assert itself in its near-abroad, especially with Ukraine, but is at risk of socio-economic turmoil. China has gained tremendous influence across much of Eurasia, including Central Asia. Brzezinski’s ‘chessboard’ remains in vogue, albeit with Beijing becoming a major player. This is where Pakistan in general, and Balochistan in particular, appears as a few important squares on the board.
As the Balochistan insurgency starts to ebb, there is cautious optimism in the province. But the specter of past mistakes still cast shadows on the future
Geopolitics or geoeconomics?
Many have written about Balochistan and its myriad issues like gross lack of development, decades of state indifference, history of violence by insurgents and other non-state groups, tribal-ethnic politics, and of course, its geostrategic location as a crossroads between West, Central, and South Asia. It is no surprise that the nearly $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has again rekindled interest in Pakistan becoming a major trading and logistic hub for China’s western regions, with Balochistan again becoming important through Gwadar port. China aims to connect Gwadar to Xinjiang’s Kashgar with a nearly 3,000 km long network of motorways and railroads, as well as constructing necessary power plants, industrial units and other infrastructure along the way throughout Pakistan.
This comes in line with China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) development strategy that aims to connect it with Central Asia, Middle East, Africa, and Europe through both land and sea. The current Chinese economic model is facing tremendous challenges of sustainability. China’s rising urban living standards and consumer spending has meant the old industrialised export-driven economy is being replaced by a more service-oriented one. Its densely populated eastern provinces have developed rapidly but its western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang remain largely underdeveloped and tense.
Many Chinese scholars have described this ‘westward march’ as a ‘strategic necessity’ for Beijing so as to relieve itself from a prospective tense rivalry with US in the Eastern Asia-Pacific region. By focusing westward in terms of development and trade incentives, China would hope to enhance cooperation and avoid unnecessary flare-ups. This comes at a time when Beijing has increasingly asserted itself on disputed islands in the South and East China Seas much to the chagrin of Japan, Taiwan and ASEAN states. India too has viewed Chinese moves with suspicion as ‘encirclement’ of India in its own backyard, especially in Indian Ocean.
Pakistan, in the meantime, has to take a good hard look at itself over what it can and cannot do in Balochistan. Chinese interest in Gwadar during the General Musharraf regime fell into disarray as some controversial moves by Islamabad marooned the deep water project.
The Xinjiang headache
Decades of strict state policies in Xinjiang have led to a simmering Uyghur militancy that combines Uyghur / Turkic nationalism and Islamist tendencies with increasingly violent tactics. Many of these groups are now based in the tribal belts of the Pak-Afghan border regions and enjoy support from various Jihadi groups in the region. China’s current focus on stabilising its restive western regions requires tremendous economic development and also the neutralising of violent groups like the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
China has historically followed and championed a policy of ‘non-interference’ in another country’s domestic affairs. This cold pragmatism has meant China has dealt with whatever regime or government is in charge, regardless of its domestic conduct, as long as it helps Chinese interests. However, as China begins to influence regional behaviour, subtle tweaks in the above policy were bound to happen. One example would be China’s tacit facilitation of peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and Kabul to stabilise Afghanistan and ramp up the pressure on ETIM. In fact, during the early months of Operation Zarb-i-Azb, many strikes were carried out specifically on ETIM in FATA, earning Chinese praise. CPEC’s success entirely depends on how Pakistan can stabilise itself internally. This also would explain China’s increased eagerness to stabilise Afghanistan but also facilitate Pakistan doing the same.
It shouldn’t be a surprise how critical Balochistan has become for Pakistan’s strategic goals and China’s CPEC enterprise, but this seemingly desolate part of Pakistan certainly has its own transnational challenges.
The Tri-state area
It shouldn’t be a surprise how critical Balochistan has become for Pakistan’s strategic goals and China’s CPEC enterprise, but this seemingly desolate part of Pakistan certainly has its own transnational challenges. It is essentially a tri-state area in which the borders of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran meet and effectively divide the province’s Pakhtun population in the north/north-east and Baloch in the west and north-west. This tri-state area is rife with gun-running, drug trafficking, human smuggling, and illicit trade cartels worth billions of dollars as well as the usual insurgent and jihadist groups plaguing this region. All three states have been competing to gain some advantage in this harsh frontier.
Pak-Afghan ties have been slightly warmer in recent times (though they seem to be heading for a deep freeze once again) as both sides try to seek a common ground in order to handle jihadist groups and encourage dialogue with Afghan Taliban. But there is no doubt that despite existing mutual mistrust, any political solution to decades of instability in Afghanistan will require Pakistan’s cooperation and good faith. For Islamabad, its fears of being encircled by Indian interests on both sides remains a significant motivation to ensure that whoever is in charge of Kabul remains neutral at the very least, much to India’s annoyance. Southern Afghanistan, especially Nimrooz province, has a significant Baloch population which has struggled for a proper voice in national affairs.