BY the time you read this, the parliamentary elections in Turkey will be over; most opinion polls do not forecast a very different result from the June 7 result that produced a hung parliament. But the run-up to the Nov 1 contest has been far more violent and sombre than the earlier elections.

One reason given by many opponents of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is that he has lashed out at his Kurdish and liberal-left adversaries because they denied his Justice and Development Party (AKP) an outright majority. This has thwarted Erdogan’s ambition of securing the constitutional changes he needs to transform the office of the presidency — presently a figurehead position — into an all-powerful executive post.

And although the president is supposed to be a non-political leader, Erdogan has used the office to campaign openly for AKP. To get an idea of how partisan the bureaucracy has become, Erdogan appeared on state TV for 29 hours, while AKP received coverage for 30 hours during the electoral campaign. The secular CHP was granted five hours, the nationalist MHP got 70 minutes, while the pro-Kurdish HDP had to be content with a mere 18 minutes.

Even more worrying has been the crackdown on the opposition media in the week before the elections. The offices of Koza-Ipek Holding, a vast conglomerate that, among other enterprises, owns several newspapers and two popular TV channels, have been raided by armed policemen, and the company’s media outlets placed under the control of a government-appointed panel.

Under Erdogan, particularly in the last few years, the media has been targeted ruthlessly. Journalists have been sacked and jailed, and newspaper offices have been attacked by pro-government thugs. Apart from its ongoing war with the Kurdish separatist group, the PKK, as well as the self-styled Islamic State, Erdogan is also engaged in a political tussle with Fethullah Gulen, the US-based Islamic modernist who has a vast global network of supporters, and hundreds of schools and social welfare offices, mostly in the Muslim world.

Although Gulen initially supported Erdogan, the two fell apart when a large number of serious corruption charges involving senior AKP figures as well as the president’s family emerged. Some of these stories broke as recorded conversations released on the internet. Senior police and intelligence officers were suspected, and hundreds were purged. The judiciary, too, has been cleansed of all suspected Gulen supporters. Now, this campaign has shifted to the media, and the editor of Today’s Zaman, Turkey’s most popular daily, has been forced to resign.

Since the June elections, one party — the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) — has been particularly singled out. Some 200 of its offices have been attacked by AKP goons, many of its mayors have been removed, and a score have been jailed. Considering that some 130 of its supporters have been killed in the suicide bombing of its rallies at Suruc and Ankara, one would have thought the party would have gained some sympathy. Far from it.

Erdogan and his figurehead prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, have repeatedly equated HDP with the PKK, and have sent out a strong message that only the AKP stands between Turks and the Kurdish secessionists as well as IS terrorists. In fact, the government makes no distinction between the two groups, and its jets have been regularly striking against PKK camps in Iraq and Turkey. Even worse, the Kurdish areas in eastern Turkey have been subjected to a harsh campaign of repression by the police. Curfews have been imposed in many cities. According to a Guardian report, among graffiti scrawled by security forces in Diyarbakir, the centre of Turkish Kurdistan, one read: “You will see the strength of the Turk.”

These, then, are the fault lines dividing Turkey, and there seems to be no healing balm in sight. Erdogan is a deeply divisive figure who has alienated a sizeable proportion of Turkish society. This is why so many secular, liberal Turks have flocked to the HDP banner. But many are frightened that another setback for Erdogan will see a further crackdown. The HDP has cancelled all its rallies to prevent further violence.

One problem that looms large on the political landscape is that should AKP fall short of 50 per cent in the vote — as it is likely to, according to pollsters and observers — Erdogan can call yet another election. And given his reluctance to form a coalition government and share power with any of the three major players, this is the most likely scenario.

Already, the political uncertainty and violence have led to a fall in the value of the Turkish lira, as well as turmoil in the stock market. One of AKP’s biggest claims is that it has transformed the economy during its 13 years in power. But now, the wheels are coming off this powerful engine, and unless somehow, Turkey can pull back from the brink, it is in danger of going into freefall.

Currently, the only national politician who seems to appeal to most segments of Turkish society is Selahattin Demirtas, the head of the HDP. But as a Kurd, he is clearly not acceptable to most Turks. Nevertheless, his rise in mainstream Turkish is a welcome factor in a polarised society.

The party of power before the rise of the AKP was the Republican People’s Party (CHP) that won the second biggest number of votes. However, this bastion of the secular Turkish ideals introduced (some say imposed) by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, holds out little appeal to conservative Sunni Turks who largely support the AKP.

Given these wide differences between the major players, it is difficult to see how they can be resolved. When I spoke recently to an old Turkish friend to get her views on the current situation, she replied: “Erdogan has gone mad. I can’t see how we can get back to normality.”

Twitter: @irfan_husain

Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2015

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