LAHORE: Punjab hopes to harvest 3.46 million ton rice this season against its target of 3.45 million ton, with basmati constituting 67pc of the total produce.

According to the Punjab Agriculture Department, the Super Basmati, which used to be around 40pc of the total produce, has now dropped to 40pc whereas basmati (21-11), which was restricted under 10pc, has seen its share rise to 27pc. Around 10pc are of other varieties of basmati and the rest are hybrid varieties.

“This shift of fortune for Super Basmati is due to changing market realities, where it does not bring the required returns,” says Zafar Hayat Khan, a rice grower from the central Punjab area. “This is a healthy sign that farmers have started responding to the market instead of sowing rice ignoring market situation. Though the farmers have been facing tough market realities as far as their produce is concerned, this year eight to nine rains brought down the cost of production substantially. Normally, irrigation expenditure makes anything between 20 to 25pc of the cost of production. This year, persistent rains brought some relief on water front.

“The second positive factor is Rs5,000 per acre subsidy package. Both these factors were some kind of relief in otherwise very rough rice realities,” he claimed.

Without denying the “minor relief” that both these factors have brought to the rice farmers, Hamid Mali, president of the Basmati Growers Association, says the treat to rice farmers was stagnant market where trading is almost stalled for the last three years. Basmati is basically an export crop. The country used to consume 1.2 million ton domestically, sparing one million ton for export. This export has declined by around 40pc, resulting in domestic glut and price crash.

“That is what is hurting the farmers, national economy and rice trading within the country. Even price crash is not leading to additional export. In the last two years, the price of basmati has gone down by almost 50pc, but the export scenario has not changed. This is largely because of the tendency of exporters to dump rice in the Middle East in bulk rather than trying to find niche in the retail marketing. The government, instead of providing Rs5,000 per acre to farmers, should have subsidised export so that domestic glut gets cleared and trading activity restarts. Unless that is done, the crop would stay in deep trouble, he claimed.

The crisis would not be restricted to rice alone, but it would spill over to wheat – the next crop, and the rest of the agricultural cycle because dwindling liquidity of farmers would force austerity on inputs, resulting in less production of all other crops, says Muhammad Ilyas from Gujrat district. If one crop fails, the entire spectrum of agricultural activity is affected. Unfortunately, in Pakistan all crops are failing the farmers, except for sugarcane and wheat to some extent. In these circumstances, the government has to find ways to start export cycle for one crop after another so that the sector gets back on its feet; until then, the sector would keep teetering on the brink – adding to poverty and social and political chaos in the country, he concluded.

Published in Dawn, November 8th, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play