BAGHDAD: In a mansion tiled with salmon pink marble, Sunni politician Osama al-Nujaifi greets visitors in an expansive meeting room. From a chair flanked by the national flag, he insists he is still vice president of Iraq — even though Iraq’s premier says he is not.

Nujaifi’s position and Iraq’s two other vice presidencies were eliminated by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in supposed cost-cutting measures announced this summer. But there’s little change at Nujaifi’s office. His staff is still paid, he said, and he is working as normal.

His defiance highlights Abadi’s weak hand as he fails to execute anything but superficial changes after pledging wide-ranging reforms in response to street protests. Smelling blood as he flounders, his political rivals have turned on him, while Iran-backed militias leverage what they can from him.

His precarious position will raise concerns in Washington as it backs him in his fight against the militant Islamic State group — a war that has taken on a new urgency for the United States and Europe as the group has rapidly expanded its operations overseas.

“His position is shaking,” said Ali Adeeb, a senior member of Abadi’s party, Dawa.

“Everyone is talking about who Haider al-Abadi will be replaced by. Perhaps the will of the big people that want this change will succeed.”

Since his first days in office, Abadi has struggled to assert himself in the world of Iraqi politics as he has tried to balance the competing interests of Iraq’s two main security allies — Iran and the United States. His eroded position could shift that balance, allowing Iran to further extend its reach into Iraqi politics and security matters.

It has been a challenge from the outset. In the wake of the ouster of his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, he was not initially suggested as a successor, later emerging as a consensus candidate.

Maliki, who vehemently protested being removed, remains the secretary general of Dawa, Abadi’s party, and is widely said to have been working to sabotage his rival since, splitting loyalties within the party.

“He’s in a hard position,” Sami Askari, a veteran Shia politician, said of Abadi. “The party is not united behind him.”

Adeeb said Abadi is perceived as “illegitimate”.

Perhaps in an attempt to prove his mettle, when protesters took to the streets demanding better services and action against corruption, Abadi promised the biggest shake-up to Iraqi politics since the 2003 US-led invasion. He appeared emboldened by the support of demonstrators, as well as Iraq’s top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

In addition to axing the vice president posts — which included that of his rival, Maliki — he merged four ministries and closed others.

But his reform attempts have backfired, delivering little while managing to irk powerful political players who stand to lose out. Proposed salary reforms turned the street protesters against him.

Some of the few changes he made appear to have been unconstitutional, giving ample fodder to those who opposed change — plenty in a country where so many politicians line their pockets through rampant graft.

“He killed the reforms by breaking the law,” said Nujaifi, who said he has complained to the federal court about his removal and has not been paid since August. “My colleagues and I are still working, our offices are still working, and we all consider ourselves vice presidents.”

In a severe blow to the premier earlier this month, Iraq’s parliament voted unanimously to withdraw support for his reform package, accusing him of overstepping his powers. During a recent visit to Iraq’s holy city of Najaf, he met with Shia clerics but not Sistani, widely viewed as a snub by the top cleric who had initially given him political cover for his actions.

“We’d need a prophet to do real reforms in Iraq, not Abadi,” said Hadi Amiri, the head of the Badr Organisation, a Shia political party with a powerful armed wing. “Basically there are no reforms. All they’ve done is change a few names.

“How much is he going to save in salaries? Nothing. If this is the reforms, it’s useless.”

But it is Abadi’s weakness that may save him, as Iraqi politicians attempt to leverage what they can out of the situation. Meanwhile, there are few alternative options, and the United States and, for the moment, Iran are too concerned about a potential power vacuum to see him leave, analysts and politicians said.

“The probability is he will stay, but he’s got a big black eye,” said Kirk Sowell, a political risk analyst and publisher of Inside Iraq Politics, adding that for the moment Iran will use his weakness to build their “sub-state assets”.

“As long as the Iraqi government is funding Iranian-backed militiamen they’ll be content,” he said.

And the militias certainly appear to be using the opportunity to get what they can. Last month Abu Mahdi Muhandis, the leader of Iraq’s amalgamation of largely Shia militias known as popular mobilisation units, wrote a patronising letter to the premier demanding more support for his fighters. In an embarrassment to Abadi, it was leaked publicly.

“I have told you repeatedly that we need headquarters and training camps and weapons and munitions,” the letter said. “Why and why and why?” he wrote, questioning the supposed lack of support.

Amiri, who had just returned from a visit to Iran and is close to the leadership there, said it is not in Iran’s interest to change Abadi now.

He stressed it was essential that Abadi give more support to militia fighters in next year’s budget. But regardless, he said, the country should “stand by Abadi” because it is facing a real threat. Besides, with huge economic problems and street pressure to reform, ongoing war and a litany of obstacles to change, there are few options.

“Only a crazy man would want to be in his position right now,” Amiri said.

—By arrangement with The Washington Post

Published in Dawn, November 29th, 2015