ISLAMABAD: Having lost a couple of major international arbitrations in water disputes, the government has decided to carry out a comprehensive study to evaluate the impact of Indian construction on rivers flowing into Pakistan.

The 2013 judgment by the International Court of Arbitration over the Kishanganga hydropower project dispute had gone against Pakistan, mainly because of inability of the authorities to provide data that could establish water uses inside areas under its control in Azad Kashmir as well as the project’s environmental impact.

The government’s belated challenge to the Baglihar hydropower project before a neutral expert also could not yield desired results as the project structure was acknowledged as fait accompli.

This is among some of the issues on which the provincial governments will submit their recommendations at a brainstorming session of stakeholders to be organised by the Water and Power Development Authority on Thursday, according to official papers.

The provincial governments and other stakeholders will also give their viewpoints regarding introduction of an effective mechanism for all kinds of water uses to ensure self-reliant operations and maintenance of irrigation and drinking water infrastructure.

The provincial governments are accused of utilising their constitutionally guaranteed water shares without paying for the infrastructure use and the authorities are of the view that there should be a mechanism for building and servicing this infrastructure.

According to the official papers, a substantial part of Pakistan’s fresh water resource is generated outside the country. The Indus Water Treaty provided a mechanism for sharing water with India, but there were some critical issues which had obstructed the implementation of the treaty over the last 55 years.

For example, the provisions in the treaty for unlimited hydropower development in upper catchments have the potential of threatening water availability in lower catchments during low flow periods. The treaty did not provide for minimum environmental flows downstream international boundary for the eastern rivers, which exposed downstream population to serious environment hazards.

In view of such issues, the authorities also visualise problems on the western rivers. For example, upstream developments on Kabul river have been planned and implemented, but there is no formal agreement on sharing its water between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The authorities now argue that there should be a mechanism for sharing trans-boundary aquifers and a joint watershed management, including sharing of real-time flow information.

IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENT: Therefore, it has been decided to carry out a study to “evaluate the impact of developments in the upper catchment” of rivers flowing from across borders on environment, agriculture and hydropower projects, including the existing and those planned for future, in the lower catchment.

The study “shall also recommend measures to minimise these impacts within the framework of the Indus Water Treaty and international water laws”.

Moreover, it has also been noted that the country is already enduring the impact of climate change in the shape of intense floods, erratic monsoon rains and droughts, but it could have other repercussions on water resources. These involve recession of glaciers threatening water inflows into the Indus river system, increased siltation of dams and reservoirs caused by more frequent and intense floods and shorter duration of snowfall and its prolonged melting, bringing drastic changes in mass balances.

The climate change will also lead to increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and fisheries and rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stress conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to reduced agricultural productivity.

With a rise in temperature as a result of climate change, crops will require more water due to excessive evaporation and cattle will consume more water. Domestic consumption will also increase. The precipitation pattern will become more complex, less predictable on a long-term basis with stronger regional variations than being experienced now and aquifer could be affected with negative impact on agricultural output.

The authorities have proposed that in order to understand the shift in rainfall patterns, a local climate model should be prepared by pooling computing resources for adapting global climate models to local conditions. Collaboration should be worked out with international agencies and organisations specialising in weather simulation modelling as well as active participation in new international initiatives for climate services.

“The impact of climate change shall be minimised by storing water in carryover surface storages and in underground storages and adaptive measures shall be worked out to adjust to impacts of climate changes,” stated a working paper prepared for the stakeholders’ meeting.

Published in Dawn, December 10th, 2015