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Published 13 Dec, 2015 07:15am

Between the lines: Demographic shift in MQM vote bank

Some myths are created from identity and exclusion, others are based on nostalgia. More still are formed from a shared history of struggle of sacrifice. Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s (MQM) win in Karachi’s local government elections brought all three to the mix: the difficulty of accommodation in the mainstream, a perception of having been wronged, and a shared history of having seen it all before.

While this potent mix has allowed the MQM to survive through the years, including this year, those trumpeting the narrative of struggle have changed: a younger generation has been the driving force of Muttahida’s rhetoric and praxis. In this dynamic lies the secret to the MQM’s success in the recently-concluded local government elections.

Back in April, as the MQM stood up to the PTI challenge in its NA-246 backyard, the driving force of deciding votes was an elder generation of MQM support.

The young ones didn’t seem to believe it, but the elder ones beat up a siege mentality: the Rangers operation in Karachi was against the MQM, not against theocratic militants. When discussions on private electronic media sought to discredit the MQM, elders pointed to “media trials” of the 1990s. If the security establishment was playing up 90s-era allegations, the elder MQM-supporting generation played up the struggle and sacrifice needed to ride those days out.


A younger generation has stepped to the fore, adopting legends and myths passed on by their elders


The anxieties of the younger generation had already distanced some from the party proper in the 2013 elections. In the Azizabad by-polls, the MQM made a concerted effort to woo these estranged young voters.

Despite the young ones’ anxieties and legitimate grievances, it was male elders of families that often decided which way their households would vote. “Us versus them” lines were drawn. It didn’t matter which way you voted in the 2013 elections if you voted for Altaf Hussain in the by-polls. To defend Azizabad was to defend their identity, not just a political party.

In the eight months since, the lessons imparted seem to have been imbibed by a younger generation. The security operation has helped the party’s narrative too: young men being subjected to everyday humiliation during snap checking reinforced the idea that migrants from India were not welcome. While party chief Altaf Hussain and other senior leaders face charges in court, the younger ones now point to the sacrifice and struggle of their elders as the party’s legacy.

In the upturn of fortunes of the Afaq Ahmed-led Mohajir Qaumi Movement-Haqiqi, many see security forces operating with a particular bias. With many young men in lockups and in hiding today, the power of spreading word by mouth has been immense: in neighbourhoods and markets, there is talk of how the party is under attack and who has now gone missing.

In a sense, there are new defenders of age-old legends spun around the party’s struggle. That a younger generation of voters became the driving force for local government elections should allay some concerns within that the party is losing its resonance with its vote bank. Not many bothered to vote, but those who did, for whom everyday disputes over water hold much meaning, believed that Muttahida is still their best bet in Karachi.

But equally, while the prized demographic of young adults had returned to voting for the MQM was much cause for celebration, it does pose the question of whether a similar transition also takes place along the ranks. If the prized voter profile has become the driving force, should those dealing with them also be young and dynamic?

Indeed, the last great induction of new members into the party happened when Mustafa Kamal was spearheading a cosmetic makeover of the MQM through his local government. It is again a younger generation that Muttahida must cater to.

For the MQM, its greatest challenge post-elections lies in separating matters of local governance from the development of its party organs and institutions. Their last term in local government had allowed them to make good on large promises — employment on government posts being the most significant one.

It was when matters of governance started becoming intertwined with those of the party’s institutions that things started going south. The party organisation saw ranks swell in the Mustafa Kamal wave within no time. And it also saw ranks deplete equally quickly once the riches on offer in governance dried up.

When it came to service delivery, neighbourhood disputes and their resolution moved out of party headquarters Nine Zero and back into neighbourhoods and their union council offices once Mustafa Kamal had settled in. Local representatives became more accountable, both at neighbourhood level and in debates at the City Council.

But after the local government ordinance lapsed and union councils lost their sway, disputes and their resolution moved back into Nine Zero. Without the reach provided by governance, the party’s service delivery mechanism seemed to be clipped at the neighbourhood level. Without local governance, the party found it tough to reinvent itself.

The MQM’s second greatest challenge will be in ensuring that violent land disputes that became a hallmark of the Mustafa Kamal-led government are not repeated. Too often, activists of rival parties found themselves locked in pitched battles over who controlled land. Too often, social activists of repute were lost from all sides.

Last but not the least, the MQM will need to be clear about what it can legitimately and easily achieve and what it can’t. Any gap in voter expectation and service delivery will be fatal for the party’s slow but steady recovery.

Gone are the unquestioned days of Mustafa Kamal, when he was able to donate Rs 20 million for earthquake relief from the discretionary financial kitty that he was allowed, moments after being sworn in. Matters may not be as simple now, neither with discretionary funds nor with money earmarked for development, since the new local government legislation essentially makes the mayor subservient first to the city’s commissioner, then to the provincial local government minister, and finally to the chief minister.

In effect, the city’s commissioner holds veto power over projects and spending.

The success of the Mustafa Kamal-led government inevitably raised expectations, and going by the party’s electoral rhetoric this time around, Muttahida is trying to raise the same expectations again. But given who controls power and finances this time around, the party will do well not to overpromise and under deliver. After all, they don’t want to lose returning voters to a perception of being helpless.

The writer tweets @ASYusuf

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, December 13th, 2015

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