HOLDING a census was never going to be an easy exercise, partially due to the politics that surround the event, and partially to the immense logistics involved.

The decision to hold the census was made in March last year after the planned exercise received the blessings of the Council of Common Interests; the population count is scheduled for March this year, which is only a few weeks away.

Meanwhile, we have heard many things — that the logistics are proving too daunting to be completed in such a short time, that the funds have not been released, and that ideas are being discussed to possibly scrap the census and use the Nadra database as a proxy to arrive at estimates of total population instead.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, each of these difficulties has been surmounted, and as of the latest announcements made in the last few days, not only is the exercise still scheduled for March, but the government has reiterated its resolve to ensure transparency to make the exercise credible. So far so good.

However, now at the last minute, a hitch has arisen. It turns out that the requirement for army personnel to accompany the census enumerators is far too large for the military force to afford at the moment, given the multiple operations under way around the country.

According to estimates given by the PBS, almost 365,000 army personnel will be required to cover the 167,000 census blocks in the country, even if there is only one soldier per block and the accompanying chain of command to oversee the entire process.

The government is categorically opposed to holding the census in phases as this departs from international practice and could end up skewing the results because it raises the likelihood of people being counted multiple times. The army escort for the operation is considered vital for security reasons, but also to lend some credibility to the exercise.

So the whole exercise appears to be heading towards an impasse since it is unlikely that the required troop strength will be available by March, and the government is unwilling to conduct the exercise without army supervision and security.

It is bewildering that the matter should come to the forefront so late in the day, only weeks before the exercise is scheduled to start.

It is hard to say what compromise can save the exercise from suffering a delay at this point, given that there is no end to the military operations in sight. But the government must ensure that all efforts are made so that it begins the exercise on time and sticks to the schedule.

Further delays in the census exercise will negatively impact the conduct of the forthcoming elections, as well as policy formulation and implementation, not to mention dent the credibility of the government itself.

Published in Dawn, February 8th, 2016