CLIMATE change potential vulnerabilities in Pakistan are serious, but the national focus on addressing the challenge is weak. Major risks include rise in the sea level, glacial retreat, floods, higher average temperature and frequency of droughts.

All these have direct impact on the agrarian economy with 21pc share in GDP. Our farmers are still unaware of how cropping patterns will drastically change in the coming 20-30 years because of rising temperatures. Cultivators are stuck in space and time.

Almost 50pc of the country’s agricultural land area is under threat of climate change. Pakistan, for that matter any country, may not be able to endure such degradation of precious resources. The country is in heat surplus zone of the Earth.

Scientists believe that climate change in the Indo-Pakistan sub-continent may result in erratic and intensive monsoon rains, dry winters, late winter rains (observed this year too), and prolonged dry spells. This will lead to acute water shortages especially for winter crops, and the decline in water levels in reservoirs. The season for wheat growing will become short, but more time will be available for land preparation for summer crops.

Waterlogging and salinity will increase along with incidence of insects, pests and diseases. With changes in climatic conditions, winter crops’ (wheat and other cereals) yields might increase due to carbon fertilisation but the increase will be offset by reduced growing season and water shortages. Summer crops’ (rice, cotton, sugarcane etc.) yields might also increase due to carbon fertilisation and improved land preparation, but the excessive heat and water shortage will offset the output increase.

In order to address the existing conditions, we need to minimise the natural resource degradation particularly land. This requires enhancing skills and the capacity of farming community

In order to address the existing conditions, we need to minimise the natural resource degradation particularly land. This requires enhancing skills and capacity of farming community for sustainable management of natural resources. Besides, we must develop and introduce regulatory mechanisms to manage and store summer water overflows (new reservoirs would be needed).

Encouraging and adopting high irrigation efficiency systems, methods and techniques for farming will help to improve this problem. For rabi crops, geneticists must develop the short duration and stress tolerant varieties of wheat, sugarcane, rice, maize, cotton etc.

Mechanistic crop growth models have the potential use for crop management so crop simulations models must be applied in field crops research. Capacity building of farming communities is required for swift adjustment to changes in cropping seasons and patterns.

By devising national policies and incentives combined with national level capacity programmes to encourage demand-oriented conservation the problem of climate change can be minimised. There is a need to establish comparative advantages in agro-based industries in light of the changing climate scenarios at regional and national levels.

The writer is an assistant professor at PMAS Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Attock Campus

zuhair@uaar.edu.pk

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, April 18th, 2016