GOING by the particularly apocalyptic prognostications on both sides of the debate, either result in tomorrow’s British referendum will presage a monumental disaster.

Vote to leave the European Union (EU) and its already troubled economy will go down the drain, Britain will be isolated and vastly more un-influential on the global stage, and considerably more vulnerable when the third world war breaks out.

Vote to remain and the Poles will keep stealing your jobs, the country will be inundated with millions of Turks, and the National Health Service (NHS) alongside various other elements of the welfare state will suffer and perhaps even perish because of their inability to cope with the unrestricted influx.

Given the conflicting narratives, the average Briton has every right to be confused. On the weekend, Prime Minister David Cameron lamented the confusion, without acknowledging his key role in exacerbating it as the figurehead of what has been dubbed Project Fear.

A UK out of Europe will not necessarily be a better country.

Cameron is, of course, fighting for his political life: an out vote would compel him to resign, at least in due course if not immediately, given that there is a clear rift within his Conservative Party on the issue, with key members of his cabinet advocating the reverse of what he proposes. Rather pathetically, in his desperation the Tory prime minister even appealed to those who detest him not to let that sentiment stand in the way of making what he sees as the right choice.

What is even more pathetic is the way Cameron has latched on to the grievously tragic murder last Thursday of Labour MP Jo Cox as a means of propelling his agenda. It is by no means far-fetched to see her assassination as a reminder of the extreme sentiments on the fringes of the Brexit campaign. But Cox’s role in the remain campaign was motivated by a set of humanitarian principles rather different from those that drive Cameron and his ilk.

The Labour Party is considerably less divided on the issue than its Conservative counterparts, yet has been less visible in the referendum campaign. This is partly attributable to its understandable pleasure in watching from the sidelines as the Tories tear themselves apart. Labour, after all, is more prone to such ructions, usually when it is in opposition.

Its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has nonetheless faced criticism from within his ranks for his lack of enthusiasm in prosecuting the remain case. The perception isn’t entirely unfair, but then nor is Corbyn’s ambivalence. He recognises grey areas where Euro-enthusiasts and Eurosceptics alike view matters in black and white.

Through much of his political life, the long-standing radical Labour stalwart Tony Benn, Corbyn’s mentor in many respects, more or less consistently opposed the EU on the grounds that it is “a carefully constructed mechanism for eliminating all democratic influences hitherto exercised by the electors in the member states”. His gut feelings would no doubt have been reinforced by the manner in which the EU has brushed aside the opinion of Greek voters. Yet he would also have recognised that the impetus for austerity measures in Britain came from Whitehall rather than Brussels.

There is much to be said for the case that membership of the EU depletes sovereignty. What’s more, the EU seems far keener to put its foot down where the poorest citizens will be worst hit.

Whether the EU can be transformed from within to dispense with its neoliberal predilections remains an open question. But it might be worth having a go, despite the opaqueness and disregard for democracy at the heart of Brussels. The role of the EU and its predecessors in keeping the peace in Europe since 1945 is, meanwhile,  debatable but cannot be dismissed out of hand.

But even if the EU is a busted flush, who would seriously want Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith or Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, to lead the march way from Brussels? 

Neither side favours unrestricted immigration into Britain, but that should be the least of the voters’ worries. There are absolutely no guarantees that a Britain out of Europe would in any meaningful way be a better country. It makes better sense, then, to stay in and not just hope but to agitate for the best, rather than to unleash a host of copycat referendums that deplete the European project instead of at least trying to reform the travesty that a once progressive idea has turned into.

As for the absurdly predicted war, that has nothing whatsoever to do with Britain remaining in or pulling out of the EU. It’s worth remembering, though, that today marks the 75th anniversary of Operation Barbarossa, the wilful error whereby Adolf Hitler sought to invade the Soviet Union and thereby sealed his doom. Today, it is Germany that is agitating against the recklessness that could provoke a confrontation between Russia and the West.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, June 22nd , 2016