“IF [my supporters] are stopped, there will be fighting. If the police stop them there will be destruction and if as a result of this a martial law is imposed, then that is the government’s fault.”

These are words that Imran Khan spoke just two days before launching the 126-day dharna (sit-in) in August 2014.

Sound familiar? They should, because there is a sense of déjà vu to the looming lockdown of Islamabad promised by the PTI and trusty sidekick Sheikh Rashid.

Two years ago, frustrated by the sluggish progress on decisions on rigging allegations in four constituencies, Imran decided to take to the streets. Two years ago, just before the PTI and PAT marched into Islamabad, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif offered a last-ditch Supreme Court commission to determine whether there were irregularities in the 2013 elections.

Two years ago, the Islamabad grapevine was buzzing with talk of a rift between the military and the civilian government. Two years ago, the PML-N was as abrasive and intransigent. Two years ago, law and constitution did not offer instant answers.

It is hard to predict how “Dharna Version 2.0: Lockdown” will play out, but it is useful to recap the outcome of Version 1.0.

Election rigging and reforms

Ultimately, Imran Khan climbed down from several of the more outrageous allegations and demands: “Go Nawaz Go” became a metaphor for getting rid of a faulty electoral system or sham parliament, depending on what spin you want to buy; collusion between former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and Geo TV to engineer a PML-N victory became a wild accusation; the judicial commission examining the rigging allegations concluded the 2013 elections were not systematically manipulated, an outcome accepted by Imran Khan.

And lest it be forgotten, “the 35 punctures” became hearsay — repeated so often it acquired the patina of truth.

Or, as the PTI chief admitted to an anchor in an interview later, “political talk”.

But that doesn’t mean the PML-N got away scot-free either. Of the four constituencies where Imran had said there were grave irregularities, here is what happened:

1. The election tribunal on Defence Minister Khawaja Asif’s seat (NA-110) dismissed the appeal by PTI’s Usman Dar, who then took it to the Supreme Court. Last heard, the court was displeased over adjournment motions filed by Khawaja Asif’s counsel. Meanwhile Nadra told the court it could not verify over 14,000 votes in 26 polling stations.

2. In December last year Jehangir Tareen won the by-election in NA-154 in Lodhran. Independent candidate Siddiq Baloch — who first contested as an independent and then joined the PML-N — was disqualified and barred because of a fake degree by the election tribunal. Tareen’s petition had claimed electoral anomalies as well, but could not prove them.

3. Speaker Ayaz Sadiq’s NA-122 election was declared invalid, but he then went on to win the by-election in October last year.

4. Finally, what of NA-125 Lahore, where Railway Minister Saad Rafique defeated PTI’s Hamid Khan? The election tribunal ordered by-elections after irregularities were found in seven polling stations. But in the end Saad Rafique won the day in the Supreme Court, which suspended the tribunal’s decision. His lawyer was able to successfully argue that he should not be punished for the sins of the returning officers.

So far, the story has been relatively exciting, and, best of all, telegenic to boot. But what of the yawn-inducing toil of reforming the election process? The parliamentary committee on electoral reforms was put together just about a month before the 2014 sit-in.

The committee is headed by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and includes members from across-the-party spectrum. It has met over 60 times and claims it is “close to formulating recommendations”. But Pildat’s Ahmed Bilal Mehboob told Dawn, “Some groundwork has been done: meetings with the Election Commission, the possibilities of electronic voting machines and voting options for overseas Pakistanis have all been discussed, but they have not tabled their report.”

He went on to say the committee needs to table a package of laws before both houses of parliament very, very soon. “As the next elections approach, it will be harder to build consensus because the parties will be in electioneering mode.” It could be argued that they already are.

Although it is hard to put a timeline on when this package of laws will see the light of day, Mr Mehboob says: “Had they been tabled soon after the 2014 protest, it would’ve been easier to forge a consensus.”

But all this is history two years down the road.

The choppy waters of Panama

While the PTI appears to have an inconsistent record in pushing for change in the electoral system — depending on what can be sexed up and sold to its supporters — corruption has been a steady rallying cry, especially if it is even vaguely linked to the Sharifs.

The Panama leaks provided Imran Khan with a fresh cause du jour to twist the screws on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Some analysts say six months down the road, momentum appears to have been lost, due in large part to the PML-N’s obstinacy and dawdling. Timing, after all, matters in politics.

As for the investigations into what money was laundered, through which channels, into what offshore companies, tax experts say that despite the absence of specific laws, an aggressive investigation is possible. Organisations like NAB, FIA, State Bank, SECP and FBR too have shrugged shoulders when asked by the Khurshid Shah-led Public Accounts Committee about starting investigations.

That leaves the Election Commission, and more crucially, the Supreme Court. On November 1 — a day before the lockdown — the prime minister’s attorney is set to appear before court.

“He could argue that the Supreme Court does not have the jurisdiction, that because it’s a political issue it ought to be decided by parliament,” Supreme Court Bar Association President Ali Zafar told Dawn about the prime minister’s possible defence. “Or that there is no law under which an inquiry commission could be formed.”

In other words, there are a few legal hurdles to jump over. But, Mr Zafar says, whatever the SC eventually rules, it cannot disqualify the prime minister. “Until there is a trial and evidence provided to prove corruption, the SC does not have the jurisdiction.”

Imran Khan appears to be in no mood for a climbdown just yet. Indeed, even as the nation mourned the attacks on the police training college in Quetta, he flipped blame on to Nawaz Sharif, calling him the biggest security risk, reaffirming that the lockdown would go ahead as planned.

Not to be left behind in this game of politics-over-sense, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif asked whether Imran Khan’s “attack on Islamabad” is “accidentally” coordinated with Indian firing at the LoC and Working Boundary, as well as the Quetta and Peshawar assaults masterminded from Afghanistan.

This is getting uglier.

Meanwhile, the PPP is waiting darkly in the wings, either as mediator or benefactor. But that too happened two years ago.

The writer works for DawnNews

Published in Dawn, October 26th, 2016