After Jayalalithaa, the politics of Tamil Nadu is likely to change for various reasons. The question is will the Dravidian parties continue to be relevant?

It appears that while the two Dravidian parties — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (AIADMK) — continue to be dominant their character is slowly changing in view of the emerging voter profile of younger and aspirational voters.

Now with the demise of the AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, there is bound to be a vacuum. The party may find it difficult to fill the vacuum. The DMK chief M. Karunanidhi is also ageing. The DMK too might change in the post-Karunanidhi period for various reasons.

There are several questions which have no answer at present. For instance, can the AIADMK hold together in the post-Jayalalithaa period? It is not known, as it is too soon. Can the AIADMK throw up another figure to rival or match MGR and Jayalalithaa? It is not known yet. Will the DMK come back to the centre stage of the Dravidian movement? There are some who believe that if the AIADMK faces up to its inherent contradictions it might break.

The predictions are that one group may move towards the ideological parent, the DMK. A group dominated by Thevar leaders may remain with Sasikala and the rest could go here and there. Will the two national parties — the BJP and the Congress get a foothold in the vacuum created by the demise of Jaya? Neither has any strong local leaders. Unless that happens this is not possible.

The interesting thing about the Dravidian parties is they are all personality-oriented. If the DMK was dominated by Annadurai and Karunanidhi, the AIADMK’s strength was its charismatic leaders MGR and Jayalalithaa as well as its capacity to capture the anti-DMK votes. That is why the two parties had been able to alternate in power in Tamil Nadu.

It is pertinent to note that the Dravidian parties have dominated the political scene of the state for more than four decades, a process that began with the emergence of the DMK and its capturing power in Tamil Nadu in 1967.

When M.G. Ramachandran split the DMK in 1972 and formed his AIADMK, the Dravidian culture became two-headed with both the DMK and the AIADMK representing the ideology.

When the DMK split further in the 1990s and Vaiko formed his MDMK it became weaker still.

Historically, the DMK as well as the AIADMK had emerged in the state as a countervailing force to the Congress, which was strong at that time at both the Centre and in the State. But between them they held the key to Dravidian politics for more than five decades.

The Dravidian parties rose to power and prominence on the political stage of Tamil Nadu in the 1960s. And after the DMK came to power in 1967, the Dravidian ideology became the cornerstone of politics in Tamil Nadu.

Weakening of Dravidian culture

The Dravidian movement was a political movement for social emancipation of the suppressed classes. It was against ritualism, it propagated atheism, fought for women’s rights and stood for, ‘self-respect’.

It was against the imposition of Hindi because it was the language of the” Aryan North”.

The DMK demanded a separate Tamil Nadu but gave up it up after the Chinese aggression in 1962. The DMK was the first Dravidian party which promoted the cause of Tamil pride and development of the OBCs and Dalits.

Tamil Nadu was the only state to legalise Hindu marriages conducted without a Brahmin priest. It also promoted inter-caste and inter-religious marriages because of the self- respect movement.

The two Dravidian parties included in their manifestoes an agenda to help the transgender community — again a first in the country.

But this Dravidian culture began to weaken over the decades. In fact, MGR himself used to go to Mookambikai temple in Karnataka.

Jaya had done a lot for Hindu temples during her regimes. She even brought an anti-conversion law which lost her votes and she had to go back on it.

Even Karunanidhi is said to visit Gopalapuram temple to please his wife. DMK leaders like M.K. Stalin visit temples, and wear rudraskha malas. Stalin even changed his attire to jeans and T shirt to woo the younger voters in the 2016 polls.

The two Dravidian parties will now have to think about the relevance of their ideology to current-day society.

The point is that while there may still be space for the Dravidian parties in the state, there is need for them to reinvent themselves. This is what they are trying.

While the DMK’s line of succession is clear as Karunanidhi’s son Stalin is likely to lead the party, what happens to the AIADMK? There is no charismatic leader visible as of now.

Whether the DMK will be able to profit from the weakening of the AIADMK is not known.

Congress, BJP trying to make inroads

Also the other smaller Dravidian parties like the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) may or may not snatch the opportunity to grow. However, PMK has Ramdoss and MDMK has Vaiko and DMDK has film-star-turned-politician Vijaykant. They are charismatic leaders.

The Congress is also looking for a foothold after remaining out of power for more than four decades. Therefore it is not surprising that the Congress is making overtures to the AIADMK. The Congress has been unhappy over seat-sharing in upcoming local body polls where the DMK has taken a major share. Rahul Gandhi’s visit to pay his last respects to Jayalalithaa was definitely a signal to the AIADMK. The Congress wants to keep its options open.

Have Dravidian politics run their course? It is not an easy task to dismantle the Dravidian political ethos. More so for the BJP which is seen as an upper-caste party.

Also, smaller parties like the PMK, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and Puthiya Tamilagam definitely stand as stumbling blocks.

The BJP, despite decades of hard work has not been able to find space in Tamil Nadu. A section now believes that New Delhi has taken control of Tamil Nadu politics through the back door. They think that the BJP may force president’s rule in Tamil Nadu, or acquire AIADMK by stealth and power in Tamil Nadu.

After independence the Dravidian movement got a boost because of the short-sightedness of the Congress. It never thought that the Dravidian movement could culminate in power or replace the Congress itself in 1967. Since then the state had been ruled by DMK or AIADMK, with the Congress playing second fiddle.

So what remains of the Dravidian movement today? The springboard of anti-Brahminism has disappeared. The OBCs are gaining power all over the country.

The DMK is trying to reinvent itself. Stalin did manage to come out of his father’s larger than life persona in the polls: He underwent an aam-aadmi image makeover and crafted the Namukku Naame (We for ourselves) campaign, to appeal to Tamil pride and the dignity of labour, to counter the freebies that Jayalalithaa was offering to the electorate.The DMK may not have reached the halfway mark in 2016, but Stalin’s performance brings hope.

In contrast, AIADMK does not have a succession plan though O Panneerselvam, who has twice stood in as CM when Jayalalithaa was convicted by courts, and Sasikala Natarajan, her personal aide, are viewed as top contenders.

But neither can match Jaya’s grass-roots appeal, crucial for ensuring that the AIADMK does not disintegrate post-Jaya.

—The Statesman / India

Published in Dawn, December 14th, 2016