Asif Ali Zardari announced at a public meeting in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh on Dec 27 last year that he intended to enter parliament along with his son, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, by contesting a by-election to a National Assembly seat. But there has been no follow-up action even two months after the announcement.

And there is no sign that the president of the PPP-Parliamentarian is in any mood to fight an electoral battle, especially at a time when uncertainty looms large over the political horizon against the backdrop of Panama Papers case and a fresh wave of terrorism bedevilling the country.

The country’s political scenario was quite different two months ago when Mr Zardari had, on Dec 23, ended his 18-month-long self-imposed exile.

Editorial: Return of Zardari

He had gone abroad in June 2015 after making a fiery speech that was critical of the armed forces. He returned to the country after the retirement of former army chief Gen Raheel Sharif, but the actions taken by Rangers in Karachi against his close associates the day he returned and afterwards suggest that there was no policy shift and he was not welcomed by the powers that be.

Against this backdrop, he chose a public meeting held to observe the ninth death anniversary of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto four days later to deliver “good news” to his party that he and his son would go to “this parliament” to give a tough time to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

He said he would contest a by-election from Nawabshah and his son from Larkana. Seats would be vacated by Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho, Mr Zardari’s sister, and Ayaz Soomro.

Many in his own party were surprised by this development and expressed their tacit disapproval, arguing that it was not befitting a former head of state to contest a by-election. But the party’s central executive committee endorsed Asif Zardari’s decision. Just over two weeks after the announcement, he left the country again — this time for the United States — and returned after one month on Feb 16.

A cursory look at his engagements after his return to Karachi reveals that his focus is on strengthening the party by opening its doors to even foes like Irfanullah Marwat and rebels like Nabeel Gabol, but not on contesting the by-election.

Even the Election Commission has not set any date for the by-election as Dr Pechuho and Mr Soomro — the party lawmakers who are supposed to vacate their seats for Mr Zardari and his son — have not resigned yet.

Testing waters?

Analysts believe Mr Zardari’s announcement at that time was aimed at mobilising his cadre and to send a strong message to certain quarters that despite “conspiracies” they cannot sideline him and he would continue to play his role in supporting the Nawaz Sharif-led democratic dispensation.

And it is quite natural that his party and he weigh their options before jumping into the electoral fray.

“Most Pakistani leaders at the federal level calculate timings, words, slogans and behaviour of their voters,” says Dr Ahmed Qadri, the dean of social sciences faculty at Karachi University. He teaches political science. “The PPP announcement may be seen in the light of political dynamics, which obviously created a charged environment [at that time].

“In such conditions, a federal level party always gives a second thought to a previous announcement through their think tank. Same is happening here [with the PPP],” says Dr Qadri.

However, PPP Senator Farhatullah Babar denies there were second thoughts. “It [the decision to enter parliament] has not been reversed and they will contest the [by-] election,” he insists.

Mr Babar conceded that there has been talk of Mr Zardari giving second thoughts to his Dec 27 announcement, but added it was because the timeframe of his return to the country was not known when Mr Zardari left for the US for medical check-up.

“The party’s central executive committee has decided that Asif Zardari should enter electoral politics. He [Zardari] announced his decision on Dec 27 and the same evening the CEC endorsed it. Now the party leadership has to take a decision whether both Mr Zardari and his son would contest the by-poll together or separately,” said the senator.

“There is no timeframe as to when Mr Zardari or his son would contest a by-election. In case they do not contest election on the same date, a decision is to be taken who [Mr Zardari or his son] will contest the election first.”

According to him, the party had already obtained resignations from Dr Pechuho, who was elected from NA-213 (Nawabshah), and Mr Soomro, who represents NA-204 (Larkana), but the letters were not sent to the Speaker of the National Assembly since it would have triggered the process of holding by-election. “We want to go to polls on our dates.”

There are reports that Mr Zardari has paid heed to his advisers’ fears. They do not want him to open himself to public scrutiny — which is inevitable as soon as he files the nomination papers — as they suspect the powers that be will try their best to embroil him in a political and legal controversy.

Senator Babar believes the verdict in the Panama Papers case will have a far-reaching impact on the political chessboard and it appears that Mr Zardari has decided to “wait and see” before taking a decision about contesting the by-election.

Published in Dawn, February 27th, 2017