IT was the Enabling Act signed unwittingly by Chancellor Hindenburg that gave Adolf Hitler his sweeping powers to destroy Europe. A deeper, potentially fraught political strategy may be at stake rather than a mere popularity test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the clutch of state polls that were recently held or are currently under way in India. And such a strategy has to do with the election of the president and the vice president of India in July and August, respectively.

Without the president’s assent Indira Gandhi could not have imposed her Emergency rule in 1975. That she went for elections after two years of dictatorship was her error of judgement. She thought she would win but was routed in the north, where battles for India are lost and won. The south stayed firmly with her.

Despite subsequent changes written into India’s statutes to prevent an Emergency-like mischief, the president’s decision still remains vital if and when someone wants to suspend civil liberties or overreach the already fraying norms of Indian democracy. Worryingly, the judiciary too was complicit in endorsing the Emergency although a high court judgement first unseated Mrs Gandhi from parliament, ostensibly for building an election rally stage with state funds.

It is not clear how easy or difficult it would be for a future Indian leader to sideline parliament on the way to absolute power.

At present, there cannot be a civilian Emergency in India without the president’s assent. As for a military coup of the type that Pakistan and Bangladesh experienced, Indians claim something close to divine protection from it. Because suspension of democracy is not something to be ruled out or endorsed by the media, we may glean examples from history. Hindenburg was not a fascist but he assigned to himself a role in Germany in 1933 that enabled the suspension of democracy, crucially, through democratic means.

It is not clear how easy or difficult it would be for a future Indian leader to sideline parliament on the way to absolute power. The fact that fascist mobs have acquired unhampered street power in the last couple of years in India has not left too much room for a considered discussion on the whys and wherefores of a Germany or Iran happening there.

The Iran imagery is compelling. The anti-Shah movement of 1979 had most of the ingredients of the anti-Emergency campaign of 1977. Liberals, communists, right-wing Hindus and right-wing Muslims were all part of the anti-Indira Gandhi coalition.

I remember a gaggle of communist students from Jawaharlal Nehru University faithfully followed the charismatic Comrade Suneet Chopra on a route march to Bhivani in Haryana to support some obscure candidate called Chandravati against Bansi Lal, a notorious adviser to Mrs Gandhi. Chandravati won, but we don’t know who she was and what role if any she played in the restoration of democracy. Similarly, a member of the erstwhile Jan Sangh was hailed as ‘Comrade’ Kunwar Lal Gupta who too won with communist support.

In its generosity with the right, India’s left has often played the lactating mother. Communists were finished off in Germany and Iran just when they thought they had won it all. Once a mainstream force, Indian partisans have been reduced to two nearly dried ox-bow lakes in West Bengal and Kerala, and a village well in Tripura. Whatever is left of the mainstream left has distanced itself from the Maoists who are fighting on with self-belief sans an evident strategy to win popular support. People are fighting too but they are fighting on their own, as an inspiration perhaps that might cajole the rest into action some day.

State assemblies will be involved in the vote for the next president of India. The assemblies also elect Rajya Sabha MPs who play a critical part in the choice of the president and the vice president. President Pranab Mukherjee was a Congress Party candidate without completely having the trust of the party’s leadership. Vice President Hamid Ansari is a former diplomat who has had two full terms as Rajya Sabha chairman, also a Congress and left candidate. Hindutva rules the Lok Sabha, but the opposition rules the Rajya Sabha, currently.

One more crucial element is at stake. The Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha run their TV channels under the watch of the chairman and the speaker, respectively. Rajya Sabha TV currently offers rare scope for secular, scientific and democratic programmes, as does one private channel with Ravish Kumar as its popular anchor. Kumar’s NDTV-India is a precariously powerful Hindi channel. The rest are busy orchestrating India’s nationalist melee.

Assembly elections for BJP-ruled Punjab and Goa are over. Congress-ruled Uttarakhand has also completed its polling. The most populous state of Uttar Pradesh is entering its final three legs in the seven-stage polls spread over a month. The north-eastern state of Manipur is due to vote soon and the races in Uttar Pradesh wind up on March 8. Results for all assemblies would be out on March 11.

According to media punditry the outcome would eventually reflect on Mr Modi’s popularity. That’s a given. He is said to have lost his grip in Punjab and Goa, but Uttar Pradesh could be a tight race for the divided opposition. The disarray is reflected in the fact that the left parties have fielded scores of candidates in Uttar Pradesh. They may justify their electoral calisthenics but essentially will only cut into the secular, anti-BJP votes.

Uttar Pradesh has always been the state that decides India’s political fortunes. It was their shocking defeat to Dalit leader Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh on Feb 25, 2002 that sent shivers down the spines of a Hindutva-ruled government in Gujarat. A gory train tragedy in Godhra became a handy tool for Hindutva to turn the tables on the Congress, which had won a promising cluster of municipal votes weeks before. At present liberal and leftist students are resolutely fighting a brutal assault from Hindutva. Results from Uttar Pradesh and other states could tilt the balance on the college campuses too.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, February 28th, 2017