BARCELONA is one of Europe’s biggest tourist draws, with millions visiting its art galleries, fine restaurants and churches every year. One of the most memorable meals I have ever eaten was at Comerc 24, now sadly closed.

Las Ramblas, the wide boulevard in the middle of the city, is packed until the early hours of the morning, and was the scene of the horrific terrorist attack a couple of months ago.

So popular is the city with tourists that recently, residents demonstrated to protest against the unending hordes of outsiders who have virtually taken over the areas surrounding historical and artistic sites. These places are now so crowded that it is impossible for locals to live in peace and quiet.

But this high volume of tourism is also one of the causes of the city’s and the region’s wealth. One of the drivers behind Catalonia’s bid for independence is the argument that this Spanish region earns far more for the exchequer than Madrid spends on its infrastructure and other costs. This is a refrain familiar in other regions that demand their own state so they can control their finances, and thus their destiny.

In Catalonia’s case, the people also have a different language that separates it from the rest of Spain, and its struggle for independence goes back over several centuries. But from Madrid’s perspective, any concessions to Catalonia might well revive the Basque region’s currently dormant freedom struggle. Not that long ago, this had taken the shape of a deadly civil war.

With many Catalans at boiling point, especially after the federal government’s violent reaction to the recent referendum on independence, other options are finally being explored. Unofficial talks are reported on the possibility of amending the constitution to extend greater autonomy to Catalonia. However this risks demands for similar freedom for other regions. And for many Catalan secessionists, nothing but total independence will be acceptable.

However, moderates in the movement might well be satisfied. Another issue that remains unresolved is the presence of a large percentage of Catalans who turned out in the hundreds of thousands in Barcelona last week to demonstrate against secession.

Before the recent referendum, opinion polls showed that neither side had a majority, with a high percentage being undecided. In Catalonia’s highly polarised environment, it is entirely possible that opponents of the parties supporting independence did not want to be ostracised, and therefore did not declare their true voting intentions to pollsters.

The same thing happened in Scotland’s referendum over independence: while polling data showed a majority to be in favour of breaking away from the United Kingdom, the actual vote turned out to be very different. Another region that has conducted a referendum on the question of independence is Iraqi Kurdistan. This again is the revival of a historic claim that has gained strength in the wake of the US-led invasion of Iraq. The Kurds in Iraq and Syria have proved to be highly effective in fighting the militant Islamic State group, and were instrumental in driving these jihadi forces out of Mosul, and are now close to taking back Raqa.

After Saddam Hussein’s fall, and the chaos of the American invasion and occupation, Iraqi Kurds declared a Kurdish regional government (KRG) in their areas in the north-west, and have successfully run the region since then. After driving out IS from Mosul, they conducted a referendum on September 25, and now say they are prepared to conduct negotiations with the Iraqi government to work out the details.

Understandably, this ‘fait accompli’ has been met with a hostile reception not just in Baghdad, but in Ankara and Tehran as well. Both Turkey and Iran have sizeable Kurdish minorities that have long demanded varying degrees of autonomy. In Turkey, the separatist PKK has been fighting for independence for decades. After talks over autonomy with Ankara broke down, a fully fledged civil war began three years ago. In Iran, Kurds have long been persecuted and marginalised. When he was in power, Saddam Hussein ruled the Kurdish region with an iron hand, using poison gas to kill thousands when they rose against him following the first Gulf war in the early ‘90s.

Indeed, Kurdish history over the last century is a story of disappointment and heartbreak. Promised their own homeland after the First World War, they saw cynical Western politicians turn their dream into a nightmare. In Turkey, they were long denied their own identity, and were called ‘mountain Turks’ instead of Kurds. They could not teach Kurdish in school to their children, and TV and radio broadcasts in their language were banned. This attempt to deny their culture and their identity radicalised several generations, pushing them into fighting for their rights.

Now, most of their MPs have been locked up, and Turkish forces are conducting a punitive campaign against them in south-east Turkey. Meanwhile, their Syrian Kurdish allies, the YPG, are fighting their own battle against the IS in Raqa and other areas occupied by extremist groups. The Syrian president, Bashar al Assad, is currently too weak to block their drive towards virtual independence. However, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has made it clear that he will not tolerate a declaration of independence by Kurds in either Iraq or Syria.

It is clear that few states will tolerate regions to break away to form independent countries. Bangladesh is a rare exception, but its physical separation from Pakistan was a major factor in its successful struggle. Canada and the UK have permitted referendums in Quebec and Scotland, but these are unusual: most states resort to military means to suppress separatists.

Both the Kurdish regional government and Catalonia have currently suspended an actual declaration of independence, and their future is uncertain. But such a declaration will almost certainly unleash violence. The international community is seldom sympathetic to secessionist movements as it fears the fragmentation of recognised states, and wants to avoid the violence and chaos such struggles often unleash. So the unfortunate Kurds and the Catalans might have to wait a long time for freedom.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2017