Special Report: Why climate change is a real threat for Pakistan
BONN: A week into the UN climate change conference – also known as the COP23 — in Bonn, Germany, gruelling discussions on raising climate finance started on Tuesday.
Developing countries, Pakistan included, have shown interest in discussions on adaptation measures, capacity-building, and climate finance.
While the global objective is to curb emissions and protect people against climate change, the cost of funding climate action initiatives, such as greener infrastructure and turning to more renewable energy usage, are increasing. In a series of discussions on climate finance, key takeaways included the need to get finance to flow so that the potential to invest in areas such as clean energy and climate-friendly agriculture is realised. Eric Usher, the head of the finance initiative of the United Nations Environment Programme, said: “At the heart of the climate challenge are two gaps we urgently need to bridge — the ambition and the investment gap.”
On Monday, the Green Climate Fund announced that it had committed $2.2billion in expenditures whereas it has $40bn worth of projects marked for execution.
Countries susceptible to rising sea levels, droughts and flooding are particularly anxious about climate finance drying up as the US withdraws its financial contributions.
The majority of submitted national climate plans with an adaptation component prioritise water requiring finance to the tune of $295bn annually to meet targets.
A lack of funding for the water sector would mean compromising on other development goals (energy, food security, education) for countries such as Pakistan.
Meanwhile, US billionaire media mogul, Michael Bloomberg, has pledged $50 million towards the global effort to scrap coal power even though the Trump administration has officially spurned climate action and favours promoting fossil fuels.
On Sunday (Nov 12), global leaders signed the Bonn-Fiji Commitment for further and faster climate action at the local government level.
This is a significant commitment to sustainable development when more than half the world’s population lives in cities — expected to reach to two-thirds by 2050.
Bridging the emissions gap
The target of reducing global warming to below 2°C set by the Paris Agreement has defined the direction of climate action for the coming decades.
It has been agreed that countries will undertake voluntary actions and reduce emissions though their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). According to UNEPs Emissions Gap Report 2017, released concurrent with COP23, current pledges do not cover more than a third of the emissions reduction needed.
In other words, even if all countries’ NDCs were implemented, the numbers still fall short of global targets.
If the emission gap is not bridged by 2030, it is extremely unlikely that the goal of holding global warming at 2°C will be achieved.
There is a growing consensus that national emission levels, particularly for larger economies, need to peak and begin to decline now rather than waiting for 2030.
This necessitates immediate action by major emitters and corrective measures by those who are anticipating a faster growth rate, like Pakistan.
As nations begin to report on the implementation status from 2020 onwards and periodically revise their NDCs for deeper and more ambitious reductions, equity and transparency will emerge as the central issue.
No wonder, then, that the agreement on the Paris ‘rulebook’ has become one of the moot points at Bonn.
Meaningful engagement during these global negotiations require detailed prior preparation at national and provincial levels, engaging experts, specialised institutions and concerned government departments.
Because most of these issues are negotiated concurrently, delegations are stretched and understandably prioritise certain areas at the cost of others.
What’s at stake for Pakistan
Between Bonn and COP24 in Warsaw in 2018, federal and provincial governments will need to bring their NDCs to the front burner assuring implementation to reach targets.
Pakistan has yet to initiate and agree on the process of clarifying provincial responsibilities to meet specific targets, procuring financing and formulating reporting mechanisms.
Like mitigation, adaptation is another important issue on the agenda of COP23.
The fact that COP23 is hosted by Fiji has reflected the priority of developing countries to talk more about adaptation with a twin purpose of building greater resilience to counter the impact of climate change and boost access to climate finance adaptation.
Pakistan has been consistently ranked high in several vulnerability indices, reflecting the need for augmented investments to reduce climate vulnerabilities and enhance resilience through water, food and energy security and enhancing livelihood options.
However, currently, given the Fijian presidency of COP23 as well as the recent wave of hurricanes in the Caribbean, attention has been drawn towards these highly vulnerable island nations — and away from Pakistan.
By: Rina Saeed Khan
ALTHOUGH Pakistan does not contribute significantly to global carbon emissions — ranking 135th in per capita emissions — it is amongst the top 10 countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
According to a recent country profile by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), “Climatic changes are expected to have wide-ranging impacts on Pakistan, affecting agricultural productivity, water availability, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events.”
Addressing these risks will require climate change to be mainstreamed into national strategy and policy, the report notes.
Noticeable changes in Pakistan’s weather patterns include an increase in the annual mean temperature by roughly 0.5°C in the last 50 years, according to ADB research, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events.
Annual heatwave days have increased nearly fivefold in the last 30 years — in 2015, Karachi’s severe heatwave killed over 1,200 people.
Meanwhile, the sea-level along Karachi’s coast has risen approximately 10 centimetres in the last century. Sea-levels are projected to rise by one metre by 2100, severely affecting low-lying coastal cities.
Annual precipitation has also increased in the last 50 years. Increasing temperatures will result in a decline in snowpack and permafrost (frozen soil and rock), which might lead to less water in rivers in the future.
More than 50 per cent of the flows from the Indus river system come from melting snow and glaciers.
There is also the probability of greater flooding. In 2010, floods that were triggered by unprecedented rainfall killed 1,600 people and caused around $10 billion in damages.
Given that the country is just about self-sufficient in food production, these climatic changes can prove disastrous to its rate of increase, which may be unable to keep pace with surging populations.
Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, former director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, explains, “Both are difficult prospects given the negative impacts of climate change affecting water availability and crop yields.”
The government must be cognisant of an impending food shortage as yields of wheat and rice are expected to decline which could drive production northward subject to water availability.