Middle East in 2018: A look at Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Syria and Iraq
Will 2018 dampen the fires that rage across the Middle East? Although skepticism is understandable, there is a glimmer of change.
The fight against the Islamic State group is mostly over, and the war in Syria may finally be winding down. The region is transitioning from fighting those wars to dealing with their aftermath — the destruction and dispersal of populations they wrought and the political fallout.
Iran’s influence has grown after its proxies were generally successful, and even its nuclear deal with the West remains in place. In rival Saudi Arabia, a youthful new leader is promising long-delayed modernization at home and greater confrontation with Iran in the region. Donald Trump in the White House adds a mercurial element to an exceedingly combustible brew.
If pessimism reigns, much can be traced to the failure of the 2010-11 Arab Spring revolts against despotism. Instead of the democratic tsunami many envisaged, a string of wars has followed. Libya seems doomed to chaos and the war in Yemen is a genuine humanitarian crisis.
In many places, the old guard remains in place. So spectacular is the wreckage that almost no one refers to the Arab Spring without irony any more.
Egypt, which gripped the world’s attention when street demonstrations — and the military — toppled Hosni Mubarak seven years ago, may be the best example of the scaled-down ambition. After several years of mayhem it seems more stable now, the economy starting to grow and tourism up.
Jihadi terrorism remains a problem, though, especially in the Sinai Peninsula and against Christians, and freedoms have been curtailed. Still, there is little sense of foment in the streets — where protests are severely restricted — and barring a surprise, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi can expect to win re-election in a few months.
Across the border in Israel, there is more prospect for change as long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces corruption investigations that could lead to his removal or early elections. Netanyahu, albeit bellicose, has been cautious — but he also seems wedded to a ruinous status quo with the Palestinians. He could be replaced by a greater firebrand or by the moderate center-left, which would create new opportunities.
Here’s a look at some possible inflection points for 2018:
All quiet on the Syrian front?
Syria’s President Bashar Assad has been embattled since war erupted in his country almost seven years ago, when his demise was widely predicted in the early going. But it looks like he’ll survive, for now, as the war appears to draw to a close.
Major military operations have tapered off, with Assad in control of key areas and the war against the Islamic State group mostly concluded with the recapture of the cities it controlled. Bloodshed still lies ahead if Assad tries to seize areas still under rebel control, including some near the capital and in Idlib province to the north. But local cease-fires brokered by Russia, Iran and Turkey have significantly reduced the daily carnage that kept Syria in the news.
Read: Assad may win war but will preside over a ruined Syria
The damage, with half the population displaced and almost a half million killed, is huge. Tens of thousands are missing, many believed held in government detention centers. Syrian Kurds in the north hold nearly 25 percent of the country; Turkey, Russia, the U.S., Iran and Lebanese troops all maintain bases they are likely to keep for now.
The fate of Assad, whose heavy-handed, decades-old family rule sparked the rebellion, remains a toxic issue that has scuttled all diplomatic efforts at peace. Backed by Russia and Iran, it may seem like Assad has won the war: too many of his frustrated opponents turned to extremist groups such as al-Qaida and IS for the United States and the West to jump in and risk conflict with Russia. But the endgame remains open.