If 2017 was the year of the Champions Trophy win, 2018 is the year of defending the gains made over the past 12 months. New Zealand will be the first to test out the new Pakistan, led by Sarfraz Ahmed and coached by Mickey Arthur. With five ODIs and three T20Is to be played, Kane Williamson’s team will certainly push Pakistan to the limits playing in their own backyard.

A highly anticipated battle of aggression versus aggression, we preview the series that promises to kick off 2018 with a bang.

THE HISTORY: KIWIS ON TOP

Not only are the Kiwis ranked one place ahead of Pakistan in the ICC ODI rankings, history suggests that they have had the better of the Green Caps particularly over the last decade.

Pakistan’s upcoming series against New Zealand, set to kick off in Wellington from January 6, will be a battle of aggression versus aggression

In fact, New Zealand and Pakistan have been playing each other in ODIs since 1973. The overall record portrays that Pakistan has had the better of New Zealand in the 45 years since. But delve deeper into the record book and it becomes clear that the numbers weigh heavier on the Pakistani side because of the outstanding performances of the golden generation that graced the field in the 1990s.

Back then, Pakistan had a team that could salvage a match from any possible situation regardless of the venue, conditions or context of the game. Most memorable is an ODI played in 1994 at Eden Park. Defending 161, Pakistan were staring at defeat as New Zealand needed just 20 more runs with six wickets in hand and two set batsmen at the crease. 19 runs later, the match ended in a tie. This was the Pakistan of the 1990s and New Zealand were spellbound by them.

Pakistan won 23 out of 31 ODIs against New Zealand during the 1990s. No doubt this is an exceptional record but there is also a flipside to it. If these matches are removed from the overall record, the win/loss ratio tilts in the favor of the Kiwis (See Table 1). This reveals how Pakistan’s dominance during the 1990s masks their ordinary performance otherwise.

Hence it may not come as a surprise that in more recent times, New Zealand has held the upper hand. Since 2010 the teams have faced each other 16 times, out of which Pakistan has managed to win only five. This record is particularly worse in New Zealand where Pakistan have lost the last two series without winning a single game.

TEAM SARFRAZ

It can be argued though that Pakistan’s ODI teams over the last decade or so were still playing an outdated brand of cricket. Things began changing after the elevation of Sarfraz Ahmed to captaincy, providing a synergy of technique and temperament to the plentiful pool of talent. In Mickey Arthur a coach who ensures they are disciplined, fit and aware of their roles and of what is expected from them. It is a cultural shift unlike any witnessed in the past.

The ODI squad chosen for New Zealand comprises mostly of young players who play an aggressive and exciting brand of cricket. Consequently the results have started to show that this new culture is taking effect. In 2017 Pakistan played 18 matches. They won 12 of them and end the year with a win percentage of 66.66 percent. This is a huge improvement from their win percentage of 45.45 percent in 2016.

Pakistan’s batting has usually been their weak point in their previous tours to New Zealand. They have struggled to adapt to the conditions. This may be a challenge once again, but if 2017 is an indicator, they might put up a good fight this time around. Babar Azam is one of the finest ODI batsmen today. He has been prolific over the past two years and has established himself as the anchor of Pakistan’s batting. Shoaib Malik and Fakhar Zaman too have had a good year with the bat and are players who the team will rely on to lift the tempo of the game with their big hitting.

Pakistan also have in their ranks a few good all-rounders who can clear the boundaries at will. Although Imad Wasim is out of the tour with injury, this is Faheem Ashraf’s biggest opportunity to shine in conditions that will be conducive to his bowling style. The bulk of the batting responsibility, though, lies with Babar Azam and Shoaib Malik at the top.

Conditions in New Zealand usually favour fast bowlers and Pakistan now boasts an exceptional bowling line-up which has the ability to take advantage of them. They also have a very strong bench which gives them the luxury of rotating their bowlers without much worry. Hasan Ali, who has taken 45 wickets at 17.04 this year, will be the one to watch out for. Mohammad Amir can also be lethal in conditions where the ball gets some swing.

In the spin department, Shadab Khan has been the find of 2017 for Pakistan. After impressing everyone in the PSL, he was fast-tracked into the national team. He hasn’t looked back since and ended the year as Pakistan’s best bowler in T20Is.

TEAM WILLIAMSON

The strength of this New Zealand side lies in their experienced batting lineup, which is led by Kane Williamson — one of the best batsmen of the modern era. Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill and Tom Latham are the other batsmen who have performed consistently well throughout the year. New Zealand, however, only won 50 percent of their games in 2017 (See Table 2).

Williamson and Taylor hold the key though, as their record against Pakistan has been exceptional. Williamson in particular has been in fine form and will be the backbone of New Zealand’s strong and aggressive batting order. The Kiwis also have some good all-rounders in their squad, which gives them depth in both batting and bowling. Colin Munro, for example, has also had an exceptional year with the bat, scoring two centuries and batting at a strike rate of nearly 170.

New Zealand’s bowlers too will provide a stiff challenge to Pakistan’s batting. Tim Southee and Trent Boult, in particular, will be dangerous bowlers in home conditions with their pace and movement off the seam. Leg-spinner Ish Sodhi too has had a good year with the ball.

AGGRESSION VS AGGRESSION

Both captains, Sarfraz Ahmed and Kane Williamson, have one mode of playing cricket: aggression.

Aggression is what landed Pakistan their Champions Trophy win and it is what Kane Williamson inherited from Brendom McCullum. Neither is playing for second-fiddle and both believe in their chances to win. But even if Pakistan were to sweep the ODI series 5-0, there is little chance of them toppling the Kiwis from their fifth-place rank in the ODI table. New Zealand currently have 5,812 points giving them a rating of 112. Pakistan, sixth in the ODI table but having played six less matches, have 4,560 points and a rating of 99.

On the other hand, the T20I series provides an exciting prospect as the top two teams in the format face each other. Pakistan are the Number 1 side in the world and New Zealand are ranked second. In fact, Pakistan rose to Number 1 this year by overtaking New Zealand, who had a modest 2017 as compared to 2016. Pakistan had a stellar 2017 when it came to T20Is, taking their win percentage of 53.33 percent in 2016 to 80 percent in 2017 (See Table 3).

Regardless of their dip in form, New Zealand is still a strong and balanced side in both formats. It will take some doing to defeat them at home. Very few players from the Pakistan squad have toured New Zealand before. And while they may seem young and inexperienced, this may also work in their favour since the new crop will not be constrained by the failures of the sides that toured New Zealand in the past. Whichever way the series goes in the end, for this young squad, it will be another leap forward.

Published in Dawn, EOS, December 31st, 2017