The prospects of key crops and the livestock sector in 2018 are somewhat promising but structural issues remain and need increased attention.

Only three out of five key crops are expected to do well, showing an increase in production and a modest growth in yield, and the livestock sector also seems set to perform better than the year before.

Wheat, sugarcane and rice are all heading in the right direction, and we may see additional output and yield enhancement this year.

Officials and growers say the output of maize, however, may either remain stagnant or record a slight decline due to multiple reasons. If all goes well, cotton output, too, may touch the 13 million-bale mark but will still remain below the original target of 14.04m bales.

Two key challenges to crops that have so far continued to haunt the agriculture sector might also remain there in 2018 even if their severity weakens.

The first is to bring the national average yield of key crops closer to the global average and the second is to improve supply and the value chain.

How closely we chase the objective of bridging the yield gap depends upon how seriously ongoing yield enhancement programmes based on seed research and modernisation of farming practices are implemented.

Lethargy on this count will not only result in a slower growth of the crop sector but will also constrain the country’s ability to meet the growing demand for food grains and cotton at home, and to achieve the desired growth in the export of grains, food items and textiles.

If distortions in supply chain of crops are not managed well the country can neither maintain a sober inflation nor get a high per-unit value for food and textile exports.

Cotton: The current season’s cotton output looks set to exceed 13m bales against the second assessment of the cotton crop assessment committee. This is by no means a very optimistic assessment as by mid-December the country had already produced 10.685m bales.

Sindh is sure to contribute 4m bales, up from the earlier estimates of 3.7m bales—a number already achieved by mid-December.

However, even a 13m-bale output would not only be lower than the original target of 14.04m bales but also insufficient to cover growing demand from the textile sector after the recent spike in textile exports.

Had Punjab’s cotton output not come under pressure (despite an increase in the area under cultivation) due to climatic reasons, the total national production would be around 13.5m bales.

Wheat: The target for wheat output in the upcoming season is 26.46m tonnes, up from 25.75m tonnes in the previous season.

A shortage of irrigation water and less or no rain in some wheat-growing areas might make the achievement of this target difficult, according to a Suparco assessment. But officials of provincial agricultural departments say, on the basis of field reports received so far, that the target could be achieved despite some reduction in the area under cultivation.

They are pinning their hopes on the projected increase in yields, thanks to the introduction of some new varieties in the past couple of years and a greater awareness created among farmers about the proper care of the crop.

According to Dawn reports, experiments on winter wheat are being conducted in four high-altitude regions. If encouraging results emerge, the country will begin growing this crop as well, though on a limited scale. The winter wheat crop is expected to offer a 20-30pc higher yield than spring wheat — an added advantage.

Rice: The rice harvest in 2017 is estimated to have reached 7.55m tonnes, according to officials who say that in 2018 production would cross eight million tonnes even if the area under cultivation remains the same.

Their optimism springs from a faster growth in production of coarse rice — thanks to an expanding use of high-yield varieties— and a modest increase in even Basmati rice.

For several years, Pakistan has been promoting the use of paddy seeds that survive and grow on less water and has also been teaching farmers how to reduce post-harvest losses.

Mechanised paddy harvesting and newer techniques of replanting the saplings, too, have been playing their role in boosting the rice output for some years now. Hopefully these trends should become stronger in 2018, officials of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR) say.

Sugarcane: The sugarcane output has been growing steadily leading to surplus sugar production in the country and a crash in domestic prices.

Sugar exports continue to bring in the much-needed foreign exchange into the country. Delays over the fixation of the support price of cane by provinces continue to occur, and the year 2017 was no exception.

Farmer lobbies persist in demanding an upward revision in support prices even when the same are notified. The same is expected to happen in 2018.

But on sugarcane farms we can expect changes: a straight 10pc increase in cane production (to 89m plus from 81.4m tonnes in 2017) and a rise in per-hectare yield to 64 tonnes per hectare from 62 tonnes per hectare, according to initial official projections, not yet finalised.

Maize: The maize output that exceeded 6.1m tonnes for the first time in 2017 may remain under pressure in 2018 for the simple reason that the 2017 output gain came from a big 12pc increase in the area under cultivation.

In 2018 this might not be the case and the area under cultivation could shrink, officials say, adding that total production could range between 5.3m and 5.5m tonnes.

They are, however, optimistic that the per-hectare yield of a little less than 4.6 tonnes in 2017 may actually rise to 5 tonnes per-hectare due to a wider adoption of high-yield varieties of the grain.

Livestock: In the absence of data obtained via physical animal surveys, authorities continue to make calculations about milk and meat production on the basis of inter census growth rates between 1996 and 2006.

Much has changed since 2006 and the entry and progress of large milk and meat processing companies have changed the entire landscape of value-added livestock industries.

An increase in economic growth, the consequent rise in income levels in recent years and the proliferation of chains of super markets also continues to boost demand for dairy and milk products. That is why officials of MNFSR remain upbeat about growth in the livestock sector in 2018.

But whether an anticipated growth in the sector’s performance will also help in the export of meat and meat preparations and of food items in which milk is used as the main ingredient cannot be predicted right now as competition in export markets is getting tougher.

One way of looking at the high impact of grains and livestock sectors’ performance could be the growth of the food and beverages segment of large-scale manufacturing. Here, an 11.49pc expansion in output in FY17 topped by a further 14.24pc growth in five months of this fiscal year indicates that things are moving in the right direction.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 1st, 2018