ISLAMABAD: Lahore, the capital of the largest province in the country, will get five more provincial assembly seats after the fresh demarcation of constituencies, raising its rally from 25 to 30, an analysis of census data reveals.

This is in addition to an extra National Assembly seat, which the provincial metropolis has earned by virtue of its 11.1 million-strong population.

The share of seats is calculated by dividing the 110 million residents of the province by the 297 seats in the Punjab Assembly, which yields a per seat ratio of 370,412 people. The capital of Punjab has a share of 30.03, meaning it will get five additional provincial assembly seats in the new delimitation scheme.

Indeed, demographic changes are set to alter the political landscape across the country, with provincial assembly seats increasing and decreasing across most districts in all the four provinces, in line with the provisional census results.

Other districts of Punjab that will get more provincial assembly seats include Rawalpindi and the southern Punjab districts of Muzaffargarh, Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur.

South Punjab districts, Quetta and Peshawar major beneficiaries under fresh demarcation scheme

The garrison city of Rawalpindi currently has 14 seats in the provincial legislature, but its population of 5.40 million qualifies it for one more seat, with its share coming to 14.59 — rounded off to the nearest whole number.

The southern districts will get an additional seat each, meaning Muzaffargarh will have 12, Dera Ghazi Khan eight and Rajanpur five seats, against their shares of 11.66, 7.75 and 5.38, respectively.

However, eight districts — Gujrat, Faisalabad, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Okara, Khushab, Sargodha and Toba Tek Singh — stand to lose a total of nine seats between them.

Gujrat currently has eight provincial assembly seats, but its share of 5.52 means it will lose two of them. Faisalabad has a share of 21.25, and will lose one of its 22 seats. Jhelum’s tally is also set to come down from four to three since its share has declined to 3.30.

Similarly, Mandi Bahauddin with its share of 4.30 will lose one of its five seats. The number of seats in Okara will also come down from nine to eight against its share of 8.20. Khushab has a share of 3.45, reducing the number of its seats from four to three.

Sargodha currently holds 11 seats, but will lose one as its share comes to 9.99. Toba Tek Singh, currently with seven seats, has a share of 5.91, which only qualifies it for six.

With a population of 47.88 million, Sindh has 130 provincial assembly seats, making the per seat quota 368,354 people.

The six districts that comprise greater Karachi currently have 42 provincial assembly seats, but their collective share comes to 43.57, meaning that they are entitled to one additional seat.

The share for these districts is as follows: Karachi Central 8.06, Karachi East 7.89, Karachi South 4.86, Karachi West 10.62, Korangi 6.67 and Landhi 4.45, which qualifies them for a combined total of 43 seats.

Ghotki (3) and Khairpur (6) will get one more seat, since their shares stand at 4.46 and 6.52, respectively.

However, Naushehro Feroze and Shaheed Benazirabad — formerly Nawabshah — both have five seats each, but both will lose one seat each. The same is the case with Shikarpur, which will come down from four to three seats.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar will be the biggest beneficiary, as its tally will rise from 11 to 14. Lower Dir, which currently has four seats, will also get an additional seat. Dera Ismail Khan and Tank have six seats altogether, which will increase by one. The five districts that stand to lose one seat each include Abbottabad, Haripur, Swabi, Chitral and Charsadda.

In Balochistan, the provincial capital Quetta currently has six seats, but with its share of 9.40, it is all set to receive another three seats, taking the total to nine. The number of seats in Kech will rise from three to four, while Khuzdar will go from two to three. Although there is tough competition to retain existing seats, Jaffarabad and Panjgur will surely lose one seat each. The two districts currently have three and two seats, respectively, and their current share is 2.12 and 1.10.

Published in Dawn, January 15th, 2018