ISLAMABAD: As many as 133 candidates are in the run for 52 Senate seats from all the four provinces, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and the federal capital as polling will be held on Saturday amid unprecedented measures taken by the Election Commission of Pakistan to ensure transparency.

These include 20 candidates against 12 seats from Punjab, 33 against 12 seats from Sindh, 26 against 11 seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 25 against 11 seats from Balochistan, 24 against four seats from Fata and five against two seats from the federal capital.

According to a senior official of the Election Commission of Pakistan, the Rangers and Frontier Corps personnel will be deployed outside all the polling stations established in parliament house and the four provincial assemblies, while returning officers have been given magisterial power during the polling process that will continue from 9am till 4pm without a break.

Uncertainty clouds PML-N as candidates backed by it are taking part in poll as independents

Despite suffering a political setback in Balochistan, the candidates backed by the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) may make the single largest group of independents to win the Senate elections if all PML-N lawmakers vote according to the party policy after the recent Supreme Court judgement barring Nawaz Sharif from heading the PML-N.

A careful calculation done on the basis of the party position in the National Assembly and the four provincial legislatures — which form the constituencies for the elections of members of the upper house — shows that if all PML-N lawmakers vote as per party policy, it will have more than 30 seats in the 104-member house after the poll.

However, PML-Q, PML-F, BNP-A may lose representation in Senate following the polls today.

The Senate comprises 104 members — 23 members from each province, eight from Fata and four members from Islamabad Capital Territory — with election on half of the seats (52) after every three years allowing each senator to complete six-year tenure. Polling will be held to elect 52 senators including 12 each from Punjab and Sindh, 11 each from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, four from FATA and two from Islamabad.

Though the situation in Balochistan remains unpredictable, the PML-N is expected to have a clean sweep in Punjab by winning all 12 seats, including reserved seats for women, technocrats and minorities, due to its absolute majority in the provincial assembly. The PML-N has 310 MPAs in the 371-member Punjab Assembly, followed by 30 MPAs from the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI).

Similarly, the PML-N is all set to win the two seats from Islamabad — one general and one technocrat seat. Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, who had resigned as Senator last month will comfortably win the technocrat seat from Islamabad as a PML-N-backed independent candidate.

At present the PML-N has 27 senators and nine of them are going to retire this month. The party is expected to win at least 15 seats and its total membership in the upper house may rise to 33. The PML-N with 16 lawmakers in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly is expected to win one seat from the province.

The PTI, which got representation in the Senate for the first time in 2015, is expected to double its strength after the election today. The PTI is likely to win six of the 11 seats from the KP Assembly, where the party is ruling with 61 MPAs. Since the PTI and the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) are ruling coalition partners in the province, the two parties can have an understanding on the distribution of seats and there is a possibility that the JI may also get one Senate seat from KP. At present, JI chief Sirajul Haq is the lone party senator.

Besides the PTI and the JI, there are chances that the PPP and the JUI-F may also win one seat each from KP. However, the chances of the Awami National Party and the Qaumi Watan Party getting any seat from KP are minimal.

In Sindh, the PPP is expected to win eight seats, out of the 12, as the party enjoys the support of 94 lawmakers in the 168-member Sindh assembly. The contest for the remaining four seats will be interesting in the aftermath of the division within the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has 50 MPAs. It is believed that if the MQM remains united under Dr Farooq Sattar, then the party can easily obtain the remaining four seats. Otherwise, the PML-F, which is facing extinction from the Senate, may regain its seat.

The PPP will be the biggest loser in terms of representation in the Senate as 18 of its 26 senators are set to retire while the party may win back nine seats with the result that its total membership in the upper house is likely to drop to 17.

The JUI-F whose three out of five senators are going to retire this month is also expected to lose its position in the upper house. Given the party position in the provincial assemblies, the JUI-F is expected to get only two seats.

Keeping in view the previous results, it is expected that the two nationalist parties — Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party and the National Party — will be able to improve their representation in the Senate. Both the parties have three senators each and none of them is retiring this year. In the next elections, both the parties are expected to win three seats each from Balochistan and, therefore, their strength is expected to be doubled in the Senate.

The new senators will take oath on March 12.

Prominent candidates

Prominent among those contesting polls from Punjab against the seven general seats from Punjab include former Punjab Governor Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar on a PTI ticket, Kamil Ali Agha (PML-Q) and PML-N-backed Asif Kirmani, Musadik Malik, Haroon Akhtar Khan and Rana Mehmoodul Hassan. PML-N-backed independent candidates for the two seats reserved for women are Prime Minister Shahid Khan Abbasi’s sister Saadia Abbasi and Nuzhat Sadiq. The PTI has fielded Andaleeb Abbas for women seat from Punjab.

The three PML-N-backed independent candidates in the run for two technocrat seats include former finance minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar.

Prominent candidates from Sindh include sitting Senate chairman Raza Rabbani, Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar, Maula Bux Chandio, Murtaza Wahab, Kamran Tessori, Ahmad Chinoy, Anis Ahmad Qaimkhani and Farogh Naseem.

From Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, former chief minister Pir Sabir Shah, Ali Afzal Khan Jadoon (backed by the PML-N), Faisal Sakhi Butt (PPP) Talha Mehmood (JUI-F), Maulana Samiul Haq, Azam Swati, Anisa Zeb Tahirkheli, Rubina Khalid and Naeema Kishwar are amongst the prominent candidates.

Mushahid Hussain Sayed and Asad Junejo and former prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf’s brother Raja Imran Ashraf are prominent among those in the run.

According to the ECP, 1,600 ballot papers for Punjab, 800 for Sindh, 600 for KP, 300 for Balochistan, 800 for Islamabad and 50 for Fata have been printed and handed over to the respective returning officers.

Election process

The Senate election is held through secret voting on a basis of single transferable vote through “preference voting”. All four provincial assemblies are electoral college for the four respective assemblies.

Members of the National Assembly from Fata (11) will elect four Fata senators, while other members of the National Assembly will elect two senators from Islamabad. The National Assembly has 272 members elected on general seats out of total 342 seats. Of them, 11 members will be required to elect each of the four Fata senators. Half of the remaining 228 MNAs (114) will be required to elect Senators from Islamabad.

Provincial assemblies

Punjab Assembly has 371 seats and its existing strength is 367. Under the formula of Senate elections, 53 votes of provincial lawmakers will be required to win a single general seat from Punjab Assembly. For technocrat and women seats, those candidates would be declared winner who will get maximum number of votes. PML-N has 310 seats in the province, PTI 30, PPP and PML-Q have eight seats each while five are independent members.

Sindh Assembly has 168 seats and its existing strength is 167. Twenty four votes will be required to win a single general seat from the Sindh Assembly. PPP has 95 seats, MQM has 50, PML-F nine, PML-N seven and PTI four.

KP Assembly has 124 seats and its existing members are 123, while 18 votes will be required to win a general seat from there. PTI has 61 members, PML-N and JU-F 16 each, Qaumi Watan Party 10, JI seven, PPP six and Awami National Party (ANP) has five lawmakers.

Balochistan Assembly has 65 seats and nine votes will be required to win a single general seat of Senate from there.

PML-N has 21 seats but most of them have become dissidents. PKMAP has 11 members, JUI-F eight while PML-Q has five members in the assembly.

Published in Dawn, March 3rd, 2018