Note: For Gilgit-Baltistan and AJ&K, due to unavailability of PSLM microdata for the year 2014/15, data for the year 2012/13 is used instead. For FATA, calculations are based on the FDIHS 2013/14 micro data.| All data and images courtesy Pakistan National Human Development Report
The answers in each case may be different — although they nearly always relate to different investments made in health, education and livelihoods availability — but asking the question allows the policy choices to become more local and highlights the often-ignored interprovincial inequities. Local decision-makers — political or bureaucratic — should be asking, for example, why Naushehro Feroze in Sindh fares better on the HDI than its neighbouring Jamshoro and Nawabshah/Shaheed Benazirabad districts. The answer, the HDI tells us, is better education opportunities in Naushero Feroze.
The deeper divisions, however, are much more ingrained. Lahore is about 1,000 kilometres from Awaran, in Balochistan, but it might as well be a planet away in terms of human development. On a scale of 0 to 1, Lahore scores 0.877 on our HDI and is the highest performing district in Pakistan. Awaran, at 0.173, is the lowest. Here are some reasons why: in Lahore district 4.3 percent of the population experiences multidimensional poverty, in Awaran 77.2 percent do; in Lahore the expected years of schooling for both boys and girls is more than 12, in Awaran it is 3.5 years for girls and 7.5 for boys; in Lahore nearly all women receive prenatal care of some form, in Awaran only half do.
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The development distance between Karachi (0.854 HDI) and Kohistan (0.229) or Jhelum (0.829) and Jhal Magsi (0.183) are equally overwhelming. But the real distance is regional — and no part of Pakistan is more developmentally distant from Pakistan than Balochistan is: of the 15 districts in our ‘very low human development’ category, all but three — Tor Ghar and Kohistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Tharparkar in Sindh — are in Balochistan (as is Fata as a region). Quetta is the only district in Balochistan in the medium human development category and the next two best performing districts in the province, Pishin (0.482 HDI) and Mastung (0.459), are both worse off in terms of HDI than Punjab’s worst performing district, Rajanpur (0.506).
ROOM TO IMPROVE
Ingrained as many of these inequities are, our temporal analysis over a 10-year period (2005-2015) suggests that it need not be permanent. While some movements on the HDI can be because of statistical quirks or new data, for the most part, investments in health, education and livelihoods translate into better HDI performance at a fairly quick pace.
An analysis of how the four provinces have fared on the index over this decade suggests that Punjab has maintained a steady clip, moving from 0.583 (low medium) on the human development index in 2005 to reaching 0.732 (high medium) by 2015. Sindh, on the other hand, has fared less impressively — in 2005 it stood nearer to Punjab, at 0.559 (low medium), but by 2015 it reached only 0.620 (medium). Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has taken good advantage of this. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s HDI was 0.463 (low medium) in 2005, well below Sindh’s, but by 2015 it was nearly at par with an HDI score of 0.628. Balochistan, inched out of the very low HDI status it had in 2005 (0.294) to the low HDI status (0.421), but with very little momentum.
A interesting indicator is that, of the 10 districts that showed the least improvement in ranking in this 10-year period, six were in Sindh (Tharparkar, Shikarpur, Mirpurkhas, Ghotki, Badin, Sukkur) and the remaining four in Balochistan (Quetta, Killa Abdullah, Ziarat, Jhal Magsi). On the other hand, of 10 districts showing the most improved ranking, four were in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Malakand, Chitral, Mansehra, Charsadda) and three in Punjab (Okara, Khushab, Lodhran). An analysis of the district-by-district movement on the HDI over the decade only confirms this trend. Of the 24 districts in Sindh, only two (Dadu, Larkana) improved their ranking in the 2005-2015 period. Of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s 25 districts, as many as 11 moved up (Abbottabad, Buner, Charsadda, Chitral, Haripur, Karak, Lakki Marwat, Malakand, Mansehra, Mardan, Peshawar).
Development is not, and must not be turned into, a horse race. It is not our intention for the Pakistan HDI to be used thus. In the best of worlds, policymakers responsible for each district — local and provincial politicians and officials — would look at their own performance and ask how it can be made better. Maybe, look around at others for ideas on what might also work for them. For the most part, given the way how human development and the HDI, is conceptualised, the answer will nearly always be the same: invest in education, in health, in livelihoods.
The writer is the founding Dean of the Pardee School of Global Affairs at Boston University. He tweets @AdilNajam
Published in Dawn, EOS, May 13th, 2018