UNLIKE most Mohajirs, Sind­his or even Punjabis living in Karachi, the approximately three million Pakhtuns of this city still lack a political identity as no single party, not even the Awami National Party (ANP), has been able to consolidate its vote bank in an environment marred by a deep ethnic divide.

No official figures are available in the 2017 census regarding the number or percentage of different ethnic groups living in the city. However, in the last census held in 1998, Pakhtuns were the third-largest ethnic group in Karachi (12 per cent) after Punjabis (13pc) and Mohajirs (48pc). In that census, the population of the metropolis stood at 9.856 million and the number of Pashto-speaking people stood roughly at around 1.2 million.

But it’s not as though they unite [in Karachi] on the basis of mere Pakhtun nationalism. They have always supported a new party in elections.

In the provisional results of the sixth population census held last year, the total population of Karachi division is 16.051 million. Since many people believe that due to internal displacement and the worsening law and order situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Pakhtuns have become the second-largest ethnic group of Karachi, a rough estimate in view of the previous data suggests that the number of Pashto-speaking people in Karachi might lie between 2.4 million and 3 million. Not all of them are above 18 and have the right to vote.

The total population of Peshawar is a mere 1.9 million, by comparison.

In Karachi, the Pakhtun vote bank is predominantly divided within religious parties. Many of the community members vote for national mainstream parties, such as the PPP, the PML-N and the PTI, while a large number choose the ANP as their first option. A small segment of the community is also attached with the MQM-Pakistan and the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP).

Political analyst and columnist Prof Dr Tauseef Ahmed says the Pakhtun community united only in 1977 during the PNA movement and then against the MQM. “But it’s not as though they unite [in Karachi] on the basis of mere Pakhtun nationalism,” he explains. “They have always supported a new party in elections.”

Although the population of the Pakhtun community has increased along with its share in Karachi’s electoral politics following the new delimitation of constituencies, the role of the ANP — which emerged as the sole representative of the Pakhtuns after the May 12, 2007 mayhem — has almost vanished.

Ten years ago, the ANP-Sindh became a parliamentary party after it won two provincial assembly seats in the 2008 general elections in Karachi. It became part of the then PPP-led coalition government and its leader, Shahi Syed, became one of the important stakeholders in the city’s politics. In 2012, he was elected as senator from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on a general seat for a period of six years.

But, in the May 2013 general elections, the party failed to retain the two seats it had previously won from Karachi’s Banaras and Quaidabad areas in West and Malir districts, respectively. Against the backdrop of threats by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and a bomb blast near a party camp on polling day that killed scores of its workers, the party went to the polls and secured a total of 17,677 and around 19,000 votes, respectively, on eight National Assembly and 14 provincial assembly seats.

Political analyst and columnist Prof Dr Tauseef Ahmed

From 2013 to date, the organisational structure of the ANP — which once challenged the Altaf Hussain-led MQM and equally shared the blame of being responsible for the city’s law and order problems during 2008-2013 — has been weakened primarily because of the Rangers-led operation in the city. Many ANP workers have either switched loyalties to the PTI, PPP or the PSP, or prefer to lie low. Shahi Syed himself spent most of his six-year term as senator in Islamabad and many provincial and city leaders, including then secretary general Bashir Jan, have gone abroad because of security concerns.

Traditionally, the Pakhtun voted for either the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA)) or the ANP. But in the 2013 general elections, the Imran Khan-led PTI emerged as a major player.

Dr Tauseef Ahmed, the political analyst, says that the Pakhtun community showed different behaviour in every election. “In 2002 they voted for the MMA, in 2008 they chose the ANP and in 2013 a large number of Pakhtuns gave their vote to Imran Khan’s PTI.”

A cursory look at the result of PS-93 (Banaras) in the 2013 general elections proves Dr Tauseef right. The constituency was grabbed by the ANP in the 2008 general elections and in 2013, the ANP’s provincial secretary general, Bashir Jan, lost to an Urdu-speaking candidate, Syed Hafeezuddin, of the PTI in a Pakhtun-dominated constituency in the May 11, 2013 elections. Hafeezuddin secured over 15,000 votes against Bashir Jan’s 21 votes.

While the ANP and the runner-up candidate belonging to the Jamaat-i-Islami alleged that the PTI candidate won the seat through rigging, every stakeholder confirmed that it was because of Imran Khan that the PTI’s Urdu-speaking candidate got a good number of votes from Pakhtuns.

In 2018, almost every party in the city is trying its best to appease Pakhtun voters in certain constituencies. This time round, Dr Ahmed hints at another shifting pattern. “It is expected that their [Pakhtun] vote bank will be split between the PPP, PML-N, PTI, ANP and MMA. Some of them will also vote for a candidate belonging to an outlawed sectarian party,” he says, maintaining that he doesn’t see the PTI getting the maximum Pakhtun votes in the July 25 elections.

1.2m is approximately the number of Pashto-speaking people in Karachi according to the 1998 census.

It is difficult to win a National Assembly seat in Karachi on purely Pakhtun votes. However, certain provincial assembly constituencies cannot be won without the Pakhtuns.

The ANP has filed nomination papers for its candidates on nine of the 21 National Assembly seats and its provincial president, Shahi Syed, is himself contesting election on two NA constituencies (NA-250 and NA-238) in West and Malir districts. He is said to be quite hopeful of winning NA-250 by having a seat-adjustment agreement with “like-minded” parties.

A spokesman for the ANP said that his party also filed nomination papers on 36 provincial assembly seats in Karachi. However, he hinted that the party might withdraw some of its candidates in case of a seat-adjustment agreement with like-minded parties.

The JUI-F’s Qari Usman is contesting the election from NA-248, also in West district, from the platform of the MMA whose Qari Ghulam Rehman won the same constituency (then NA-239) in the 2002 general elections.

MQM-P leader Aminul Haq says his party recognises the Pakhtun as the “second-largest” ethnic group after Urdu-speaking people. He adds that his party knows the importance of the Pakhtun factor in Karachi politics and has given tickets to Pakhtun workers from different Karachi areas.

The PPP, PML-N, PSP and other parties have also fielded Pakhtun candidates from certain constitu­encies.

Published in Dawn, June 28th, 2018