KARACHI: NA-248, the constituency by the sea, has produced astonishing results in the past reflecting its nature as rough as the sea in sizzling summers.

The history of this constituency suggests it offers surprises and maintains amazing unpredictability as its sprawling neighbourhoods have never been claimed by a single party.

Read: PTI to contest polls on four NA seats in Karachi

Yet, the three key parties, each of them winning it twice in the past seven general elections since 1988, claim it as their fortress and hope to win it again on July 25.

Fierce contest is expected among PPP, PTI and PML-N

The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have been winning it by defeating opponents by chillingly thin margins since 1988.

The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf is the new kid on the block which surprised all by finishing runners-up here in the last general elections.

This constituency covers an over 50-kilometre stretch, right from the coastal area of Keamari up to Hawkesbay. Apart from the coastal areas, it also envelops katchi abadis and rural fringes.

It includes Grax Village, Sher Mohammad Baloch Para, Mauripur, Para Dil Falahabad, Budni Goth, Shamspir, Baba and Bhit islands, KPT Quarters, Harbour, Dockyard, Shipyard, Majeed Colony, Docks Colony, Bhutta Village, Intelligence Colony, Sultanabad, Gulshan-i-Sikandarabad, PAF Masroor Base, Machhar Colony, Qaimkhani Colony, Ittehad Town, Mohammad Khan Colony, Saadullah Goth, Sajjan Colony, Dawood Goth, Naval Colony, Yusuf Goth, Baba Wilayat Ali Shah Mazar, Gabopat and Manora Cantonment.

The population is largely made up of Sindhi, Baloch, Pakhtun and Punjabi communities, but, Hazarawals and Urdu-speaking people also inhabit the constituency areas in sizable numbers.

A good number of people are involved in fishing or related activity or engaged in dock or port functions.

In the 1970s, it was a strong support base of the PPP. However, the situation changed in the 1980s with the change in demography as Pakhtuns and Punjabis entered the fisheries sector in droves.

Until the 1980s, the PPP remained a dominant political force in the constituency. Later, the PML-N and the MQM made inroads as well. The Awami National Party and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl also commanded considerable influence in the areas making up this seat.

In 1988 election, PPP’s Amir Hyder Kazmi returned from here by securing 33,606 votes just 203 more than his nearest rival, Amin Lakhani (33,403 votes) of the MQM (then called Haq Parast Group-HPG).

In the 1990, Irfan Khan of the HPG won it by securing 50,042 votes against Abdul Ghani of the PPP-led Peoples Democratic Alliance, who got 45,004 votes.

In 1993, PML-N’s Ijaz Shafi defeated PPP’s Masroor Ahsan by 266 votes. Mr Shafi bagged 32,937 votes against Mr Masoor’s 32,671.

In 1997, Ijaz Shafi again returned from here by obtaining 35,451 votes, defeating MQM’s Irfan Khan, who got 32,668 votes. PPP’s Naseerullh Babar secured 23,512.

The constituency was slightly modified and renumbered as NA-239 (Karachi-1) for 2002 elections when multiparty religious alliance Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal’s (MMA) Qari Gul Rehman edged past PPP’s Iftikhar Hussain by 703 votes.

MQM’s Ashiq Qureshi finished third with a deficit of more than 10,000 votes to the runner-up.

PPP’s Qadir Patel defeated MQM’s SK Mujahid Baloch in the 2008 elections by a convincing margin of more than 32,000, which was the first of its kind since 1988.

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf emerged as a new force in the city in the 2013 election when its candidate, Subhan Ali Sahil, secured more than 34,000 votes still around 5,000 votes short to Salman Mujahid of the MQM. Mr Patel finished third by securing 27,814 votes.

A total of 12 candidates are contesting in the coming vote, including three independents. This constituency has a total of 303,258 voters — 120,734 females and 182,524 males. It has 231 polling stations with 646 polling booths — 379 for men and 267 for women.

Fierce contest is expected among three parties — the PPP, PTI and the PML-N, which have fielded Qadir Patel, Sardar Aziz and Salman Khan respectively.

The MMA’s Gul Mohammad Afridi, MQM’s Afshan Qambar and Pak Sarzameen Party’s Mohammad Yousuf are also hoping for better voters’ response.

Mohammad Alauddin of PML-Sher-i-Bengal mainly banks on the votes in Machar Colony.

This is among the city’s constituencies where sectarian groups have seen hope for them.

Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan has pitted Asghar Mehmood, and Pakistan Rah-i-Haq Party of Ahmed Ludhianvi, which won a number of seats in Punjab in past elections, has fielded its leader Aurangzeb Farooqui.

The latter was narrowly defeated in the past election by an MQM candidate on erstwhile PS-128 in Malir.

The majority of NA-248’s residents belong to lower-middle class, while Lalazar, a posh neighbourhood, is one exception.

Owing to its diverse ethnic composition, the NA-239 [as it was previously called] has always shown varied results in the elections.

The fresh delimitations have reduced the MQM’s chances, unlike the past, to claim this seat. However, the PPP has still a strong support base in the fishing community of the coastal and rural areas. The PTI’s last performance makes it a major player in the game while other parties, including PML-N, MMA, PSP mainly bank on the support from Pashtun, Hazarawal and other communities.

Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2018