HYDERABAD: The electoral politics of Hyderabad was domi­nated by religio-political parties like Shah Ahmed Noorani’s Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakis­tan (JUP) and Maulana Maud­udi’s Jamaat-i-Islami till the 1970s. In the early ’80s Altaf Hussain’s Moha­jir Qaumi Move­ment (MQM) emerged to dent religious vote bank and since then Urdu-speaking community of Sindh’s second largest city has been following the party.

However, Sahibzada Abul Khair Mohammad Zubair as a Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) candidate made history in the 2002 elections by beating the MQM’s Aftab Ahmed Sha­ikh. The MQM’s loss was attributed to a popular wave that swept across Pakistan in favour of the MMA — in the wake of the US invasion of Afghanistan following 9/11 attacks. Another factor was the MQM’s organisational issues.

Will Sahibzada Zubair repeat history this time? For July 25 poll he has struck a seat adjustment deal for NA-227 with the PPP which has withdrawn its otherwise strong candidate Dr Irfan Gul Magsi in the former’s favour. In return, Mr Zubair has withdrawn his party’s provincial assembly candidates in favour of the PPP candidates from PS-66 and PS-67 and his son in Kasur, Punjab, in favour of Chaudhry Manzoor.

In 2002, JUP leader Shah Ahmed Noorani, who was popular with people belonging to the Barelvi school of thought in Mr Zubair’s constituency, ran his poll campaign.

Internal fissures in MQM create space for other parties

The PPP and smaller parties backed him too. With these factors he had won then NA-220 with 610 votes.

But now Mr Zubair is in the run from the platform of his party — JUP — which is a divided house. The MMA has fielded its own candidate from his constituency. Another significant element is the emergence of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) that represents the Barelvi school of thought. Analysts are unable to predict whether the TLP would prove to be vote spoiler for Mr Zubair.

Under new delimitations, the old constituency of NA-220 has been redefined as NA-227, NA-219 as NA-226 and Qasimabad’s NA-221 as NA-225. Limits of NA-227 and NA-226 are smartly demarcated to reduce chances of the MQM’s success by making pockets dominated by it part of NA-227.

These areas were otherwise part of Qasimabad-cum-rural constituency — NA-221. “New delimitation has benefited me as they have concentration of PPP voters. Together with the PPP I am creating an environment of ethnic harmony that had been destroyed by the MQM,” says Zubair.

Delimitation has also benefited the MQM to some extent, too.

The MQM regained its lost ground in 2008 when its candidate Salahuddin won the NA-227 seat. Syed Wasim Hussain clinched the seat in 2013 to beat Mr Zubair. This time also Salahuddin faces Mr Zubair who is also backed by the Majlis-i-Wahdatul Muslimeen and the banned Jamaatud Dawa’s Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek. The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI)’s Q. Hakim, Pak Sarza­meen Party (PSP)’s Rashid Arain, MMA’s Karamat Rajput and TLP’s Salahuddin Ghori are also in the run.

Elections are a guessing game in the city for the first time, unlike past when poll results were always predictable given the city’s ethnic divide. Rival parties — the PSP, MMA, PPP and PTI — are capitalising on the fact that today’s MQM is a divided house. So, for them all four provincial and two national assembly seats — won by the MQM in the past — are now up for grabs.

The PSP writes off the MQM electorally yet it is anybody’s guess why no top PSP leader has opted to contest from Hyderabad.

The PSP has, however, acce­lera­­ted pace of its election cam­paign in the city with Mustafa Kamal and Anis Kaimkhani leading a rally on July 17. After withdrawal of official permission for its July 20 public meeting in Pucca Qilla, MQM was allowed to hold it on penultimate day of election­eering, Sunday.

MQM’s fissures

This time a fragile and minus-Altaf MQM (or MQM-Pakistan) is contesting elections. While the controversy over Senate elections has been settled, the MQM is still struggling to normalise the situation. Selec­tion of a couple of unsuit­able candidates, disgruntled party activists and non-performing Hyderabad mayor still make things a little difficult. And interestingly for first time MQM candidates are spending money on their election campaigns which otherwise were run with party funds.

Other parties see it as an ideal opportunity to dent MQM’s fortress by exploiting its weaknesses to the hilt. Now the MQM, admits a central leader, is contesting elections purely on the basis of ‘Mohajir’ narrative it had adopted back in the 1980s.

Elements of MQM-London seem to be responding to Altaf Hussain’s call of election boycott. But it is yet to be seen whether they will get a positive response on July 25.

NA-226 also has areas that were not with the MQM tradi­tionally. Here Sabir Kaimkhani of the MQM squares off against the PSP’s Nawab Rashid Ali Khan, son of the late Nawab Muzaffar who had founded the Mohajir Punjabi Pathan Muttahida Mahaz in the 1970s.

Faisal Nadeem of Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek, PTI’s Jamshed Shaikh, PML-N’s Soulat Pasha, PPP’s Ali Mohammad Sahtio and MMA’s Hafiz Tahir Majeed are also in the run for NA-226.

In NA-225 a one-on-one fight is to be seen between the PTI’s Khawand Bux Jahejo and the PPP’s Syed Hussain Tariq Shah. Naheed Khan of the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) is also contesting from here.

All six provincial seats are likely to see interesting contests. PPP heavyweight Sharjeel Inam Memon is facing the Tabdeeli Pasand Party’s Ali Kazi in a one-on-one fight in PS-63 Tandojam.

The imprisoned Memon is not getting much support from local PPP leaders Pir Amjad Shah Jillani and Sher Mohammad Talpur who are angry over not getting a party ticket. The PTI’s Sohail Jahejo has withdrawn in favour of Mr Kazi who is also being supported by the GDA. Mr Kazi is said to have won the MQM’s support also.

The GDA’s Ayaz Latif Palijo is taking on Jam Khan Shoro of the PPP in PS-62. Mr Shoro was local bodies’ minister in the last Sindh government.

Despite being a serious candidate, Mr Palijo faces a drawback as Dr Qadir Magsi, who is also a contender for the seat, has refused to withdraw despite Mr Palijo’s request. Dr Magsi rather wants Mr Palijo to withdraw in his favour in lieu of his support for Mr Palijo in 2013. This may prove a vote spoiling factor for Mr Palijo and resultant edge for Mr Shoro. PTI’s candidate has retired in Palijo’s favour.

The PPP’s Abdul Jabbar Khan is up against the MQM’s Yunus Gaddi, who is contesting his first election, on PS-64.

The PSP’s Aijaz Shaikh is another candi­date from this constituency. Mr Jabbar got civic works executed with government funds although he didn’t have a representative capacity, to make inroads in the constituency.

Besides other seats, the PSP is focussing on PS-65 where Rah­eel Ahmed aka Raju Kaimkhani is facing the MQM’s Nadeem Siddiqui, a businessman. Mr Raju was an active MQM worker previously and his presence would make the contest tough. The PPP, GDA, PTI and TLP candidates are also vying for the seat.

PPP’s Sindh information secretary Mukhtar Ahmed aka Aajiz Dhamra is taking on the MQM’s Rashid Khilji on PS-66. “Mr Khilji — a PIB faction zonal in-charge in Hyderabad and former MPA — has been given a ticket by the MQM so that Dr Farooq Sattar should not have any ill will otherwise Mr Khilji was not a preferred choice,” an insider says.

Soft-spoken Dhamra is visiting areas dominated by Urdu-speaking community. “We will not let inhabitants of these areas down even if we lose elections. We will work with them in future,” says PPP Hyderabad district information secretary Ehsan Abro, who is running Mr Dhamra’s campaign.

Another MQM-P newcomer Nasir Qureshi faces PSP’s Mir Atiq, PPP’s Saghir Qureshi and others in PS-67, the constituency which covers Phuleli, Paretabad and surrounding areas. Mr Qureshi’s candidature was oppo­sed by MQM cadre initially but then the party leadership inter­ve­ned and pacified dissenting voices. Till July 25 everyone is keeping fingers crossed.

Published in Dawn, July 24th, 2018