The gathering storm
“History is a symptom of our disease” — Mao Zedong
NOT even a year after the PTI came to power, the summer of discontent is upon us. A beleaguered administration is confronting several fronts. The emerging political alignment that has brought bitter rivals the PML-N and the PPP together is ominous, although it may be sheer political expediency that has forced the two to join hands. Indeed, it signifies the shifting sands of Pakistani politics
These disparate opposition groups may not be able to bring down the government through street power. Yet jointly, they have already made things more difficult for Imran Khan, who is struggling to come to grips with a dire economic situation. The main opposition parties have announced they will launch nationwide anti-government protests after Eid.
Even more worrisome, however, is the looming confrontation between the government and the legal fraternity that is now up in arms on the issue of the presidential references against superior court judges. The Supreme Judicial Council is due to take up the reference against Justice Qazi Faez Isa on June 14.
It is perhaps the second time such a reference has been filed against a sitting Supreme Court judge, though there have been several instances in the past where the top judges have been removed forcibly. Accusing the government of having mala fide intentions, the bar associations have threatened to “lockdown the courts” if the reference is upheld.
The stand-off is turning serious with the government refusing to withdraw the reference. The cabinet has warned against agitation over the issue, insisting that the references have been filed according to the law. According to the government, there is no sacred cow and no one is above the law.
That seems to have further infuriated the lawyers. In a hard-hitting statement, the president of the Supreme Court Bar Association threatened to go beyond street agitation and protest inside the courts. The lawyer community has rallied behind the SCBA call. Such unity of lawyer bodies is rare — and extremely alarming given the rising political temperature.
The stand-off is turning serious with the government refusing to withdraw the reference.
Now the matter is with the Supreme Judicial Council and one has to wait for its ruling. But the controversy around the references has serious political implications. Either way, whether the references are upheld or not, it will not be a happy situation for the government. The issue has already galvanised the opposition parties, rights groups and civil society.
It is reminiscent of the 2007 situation, following the removal of the then chief justice Chaudhry Iftikhar by Gen Musharraf. With the opposition parties upping the ante, the situation could turn dangerous for the government. It is as if history is repeating itself. The issue has become a potent rallying cry for all anti-government forces.
Questions have also been raised about the timing of the move against the judges, notwithstanding its legality. Meanwhile, the government is under attack for allegedly putting curbs on media freedom. A generally depressing economic outlook — high inflation, rising utility bills, etc — has fuelled the public’s discontent. A government under distress has given the opposition a huge political boost.
Can the government end this siege that it is responsible for? There is a huge question mark over its capacity to deal with these multiple challenges. It is hard for any government to fight on so many fronts and, indeed, much more so for a coalition riven by serious internal differences. The government seems to be on auto pilot and completely oblivious to the gathering storm that could bring it down.
Sensing the gravity of the situation, some of the coalition partners have started reviewing their options, further adding to the government’s woes. Akhtar Mengal, whose party support is critical for the survival of the coalition administration, now regularly appears with the opposition. Some other allied parties, too, have publicly expressed their reservations over policy issues.
It has been the establishment’s backing that provided a semblance of stability to Imran Khan’s government so far. In fact, the establishment has gained far more space now as the government loses control. Its role is much more expansive than under any civilian administration in the past. But with the worsening crisis of governance, things could change dramatically. Too many fronts are hard to defend.
Meanwhile, some recent developments on the political front are quite ominous. Most significant is the resurfacing of Maryam Nawaz on the political stage after a period of hibernation. She had gone silent after being convicted by an anti-corruption court last year.
Despite her release on bail, her political activities remained restricted to comments on social media. One of the reasons for her taking a back seat was believed to be the decision by the PML-N to tamp down a confrontation with the military establishment and judiciary.
But the party’s strategy seems to have changed after the Supreme Court rejected a petition to extend Nawaz Sharif’s release on bail. With little possibility of Shahbaz Sharif returning to the country soon, the way has been cleared for Maryam Nawaz’s reactivation.
After the recent restructuring of the PML-N’s top hierarchy, Maryam Nawaz’s position has been strengthened. For the first time, she has formally been given a leadership role after her appointment as the party’s vice president. It seems the party has decided to up the ante in order to make its political presence felt, but remains careful to avoid any clash with the powerful military establishment.
Her meeting with Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari last month also seems to be a part of the PML-N’s new strategy to step up the pressure on the PTI government. The PPP leader has already made his mark in the National Assembly with scathing attacks on the prime minister and on the dismal performance of the PTI government.
The two joining hands at this stage is certainly not a good omen for a besieged government. Few governments have succeeded in fighting on multiple fronts. It’s a lesson of history that Imran Khan should heed.
The writer is an author and a journalist.
Twitter: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2019