THE PTI-led government is facing its first major political challenge as thousands of protesters march on the capital, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The PTI emerged as the largest political party in the July 2018 elections on the back of strong support among the youth, particularly in the urban centres. This was augmented by co-opting a number of ‘electables’ who generally operate through their patronage networks in mostly rural constituencies. Now this electorally winning combination is at the heart of troubles faced by the ruling party due to internal wrangling over differing public policy choices suited to these two sets of constituencies.

The PTI promised ‘change’ in the form of institutional reforms aimed at instilling meritocracy and elimination of corruption leading to better economic management and service delivery. It also promised greater employment opportunities and political space for the youth and better housing, education and health services to the masses. This agenda appealed to the emerging middle class.

However, all is not lost for the government.

The government’s performance along these lines during the last 14 months, however, has left its core support base bewildered. While reforming key state institutions such as the bureaucracy, police and taxation was always going to be a tall order, it is the government’s handling of the economic crisis that has disappointed its supporters the most.

Stuck between traditional business elites and the rural aristocracy, represented by the electables, and the contradictory impulse among the white-collar, professional salaried classes, it ended up making policy choices that have pinched both constituencies. The middle class is perturbed by the increase in income tax for salaried professionals, massive funding cuts in the health and education sectors and reduced government spending on development, catalysing the economic slowdown. The business elites are alarmed by the government’s revenue targets and rising tax burdens.

Increased taxes on consumption are fuelling inflation. The reduced disposable income among the consumer base, negative market sentiment and increasing costs of business are driving demand down and halting industrial production, creating a lose-lose situation. The working classes have been hit the hardest due to greater vulnerability to loss of work and inflationary pressures.

The government has done itself no favours in its handling of politics as well. From the day it assumed power, it has kept a hostile posture towards even those opposition parties that it could have partnered with under a more inclusive approach. This has stalled legislation, leaving it with no option but to excessively use ordinances. The thwarted no-confidence motion in the Senate, despite the ruling party being in a minority, has left opposition parties with little to lose in the current parliament.

Further, various government actions have alienated several key stakeholders. The cases initiated against senior Supreme Court judges, for example, have estranged sections of the legal fraternity. The excessive use of Pemra to restrict unwanted content being aired on electronic media has disappointed even the most ardent of the government’s advocates in the journalist community.

Thus, a disappointed middle-income support base, nervous industrial/business elites and growing unrest among the working classes has created an opportunity for disgruntled political forces in the opposition camp to whip up a storm against the government.

Led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the criticism against the government has been mounting and has included allegations of poll rigging, systematic exclusion of critical voices from the national discourse, incompetence and econo­mic misma­­­­­nage­ment.

But all is not lost for the government and protests are unlikely to bring it down, at least for now. Despite facing immense challenges, it has been largely successful on the foreign policy front and the internal security situation has remained stable. It also handled the tense situations during Pulwama and ongoing Kashmir crises well. The government, however, needs to bring down the political temperature by showing more flexibility and accepting the opposition parties’ mandate, extending an olive branch where possible, allowing greater democratic space and enhancing the role of parliament as the supreme decision-making body.

It also needs to be more decisive on the economic front. It must provide relief to its middle and working class support base by reducing the tax burden on salaried professionals, investing in health and education and ensuring greater disposable incomes leading to greater consumption and business activity. The support it enjoys within state institutions also has its basis in these class dynamics and ultimately only a sound policy informed by political-economy determinants will help it navigate through the troubled times ahead.

The writer holds a PhD in politics from Oxford University.

dr.adnanrafiq@outlook.com

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2019