THE outgoing decade holds phenomenal importance for Pakistan. For the first time in its 72-year history, the country experienced a full decade of democracy (provided something doesn’t happen tomorrow). This in itself signals a break from the painful past and merits celebration.
But many questions remain. Did uninterrupted democracy meet its promise, i.e. delivering freedom and development? Did it ease the economic stress of people and allow them to lead a decent productive life in dignity?
However, there is no denying that the space to wriggle for economic opportunities has widened and the flow of information has significantly improved. At the same time, digitisation has spared people from engaging with babus (clerks) to some extent and maintaining multiple identities for con men has become a tad difficult.
Things may have improved or worsened in many other areas as well, but it is up to experts to dissect and analyse the phenomenon. For a business journalist, it is almost impossible to report on all aspects of the change because, unlike more obvious political gains, identifying economic peculiarities of the decade warrants an in-depth, data-based study.
An attempt, however, is made here to highlight some defining economic trends of the decade ending tomorrow. Between 2010 and 2019, the country saw all key parties — PPP, PML-N and PTI — at the helm. Only the PML-N’s full term fell in the decade, whereas the remaining five years were split between PPP and PTI.
Looking through the economic prism, the decade doesn’t seem to be particularly exciting. At three per cent, the average economic growth rate of the decade was over one percentage point lower than during the decade before.
‘Despite economic stress, the people at the end of the decade of democracy are more secure, better informed and more engaged in the affairs of governance than ever before in the country’s history’
The average growth rate was 4.4pc during the 2000s when the country was under the direct military rule for the better part.
The economic growth rate remained anaemic in the 2010s despite the mega-bilateral China-Pakistan Economic Corridor deal, which was signed in 2014 and channelised over $28bn investment in Pakistan’s broken energy and logistic infrastructure.
The democratic governments did succeed in curbing inflation during the past 10 years despite a major spike in prices in the final year of the decade under the PTI watch. Inflation averaged out at 2.5pc during the outgoing decade as compared to 7.9pc in the 2000s.
The three elected governments had different priorities, but the basic thrust of policies of liberalisation and greater reliance on market remained the same.
PPP directed its focus towards developing the rural economy, which led to a net capital transfer from the urban to rural sector and a spurt in demand for cars, motorcycles and fast-moving consumer goods in the countryside suggested.
Property rates in second- and third-tier cities and leasing rates of farm land, particularly in Punjab, were said to be indicative. The trend reversed when the PML-N assumed power in 2013. As for the PTI government, it is too early to comment on this count.
Despite pronunciations to facilitate the private sector all through the decade, the industrial base did not expand anywhere close to its potential, posing limits on export possibilities. The pace of capital formation also remained slow.