KARACHI: As the Sindh-wide lockdown has been in effect for a month, the pace of spread of the coronavirus in Karachi remains a challenge for the authorities and experts in Sindh, where the number of patients of local transmission has increased from 88 to over 1,300 in 30 days. Moreover, the total Covid-19-positive cases have jumped to close to 2,200 from fewer than 150 confirmed patients on March 23, data and health officials suggest.

The Sindh government announced on March 22 that it was imposing a lockdown in the province initially for 15 days from March 23 to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The decision to lock down Sindh, disallowing people to venture out of their homes “without a valid reason”, was announced by Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah after he held meetings with government officials and representatives of opposition parties in the provincial assembly.

In his message about announcing the imposition of lockdown, CM Shah had mentioned the containment of local transmission as the key objective of the restrictions and had said: “The local transmission cases [of Covid19] are spreading and we have to contain them, otherwise everything will go out of control.”

The number of local cases which on March 23 were 88 out of the total 133 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Karachi has now touched the 1,300 mark with a total of 2,207 patients of the coronavirus in the city, suggesting more than a 1,000 time increase in the number of those people who had no history of travelling abroad and were only infected through their social contacts.

‘This is not an ordinary situation and we will have to handle it with extra care’

After a month of the lockdown, experts say the situation is still unclear whether the government has succeeded in achieving the desired results. However, they agree the number of positive cases could have increased manifold in the absence of the lockdown. CM Shah does not feel that the job is done, calling the situation “the worst” when it comes to local transmission.

Extra care stressed

“This is not an ordinary situation and we will have to handle it with extra care and attention,” he said in a video statement on Wednesday. It’s not only the chief minister; the current trend does not sound good for medical experts and health scientists as well. They, however, appreciate the provincial government for timely action which has kept the pace of the virus spread “under control to some extent”.

“But this is not time to relax,” said Dr Sohail Akhtar, a professor of medicine. “The spread of the virus has not reached its peak, but it’s maintaining an upward trend. We need to understand that one cannot treat [it] but contain it. Social contacts and people-to-people contacts are the only source of its spread. If we succeed to contain this [people-to-people contact], we will succeed to contain the spread.”

The Sindh lockdown on March 23 came after a weeklong campaign of social distancing with orders to close public places, including schools, for next two months, shopping malls, markets, major business centres, parks, cinemas and other public places since March 13. Though the complete lockdown has made the lives of millions of people difficult, the health experts believe the resumption of regular life may take weeks if not months due to the current trend of virus spread.

“There are also different trends in different districts of local transmission in Karachi,” said a health ministry official. “In East district, we find more patients of local transmission than any other districts of the city. Then come districts West, Korangi, South and Central to follow this trend.”

Published in Dawn, April 23rd, 2020