WHEN terrorist organisations splinter, it often bodes well for law-enforcement agencies: such divisions result from internal rifts that can be exploited to weaken the adversary. However, when splinter groups rejoin their parent organisations, or merge with other groups to form larger outfits, it is a worrying development. In an online post, Mohammed Khurasani, the main spokesman for the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, announced that Jamaatul Ahrar, its breakaway faction, and Hizbul Ahrar, a splinter group of the JuA, have been dissolved and merged into the TTP. The leaders of both, he said, have sworn allegiance to TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud. Efforts to bring about the rapprochement have been underway for some time, and reports indicate that the former TTP and later JuA spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan who inexplicably escaped from the security forces’ custody in early 2020 may have something to do with it.

Law enforcement will surely be cognisant of the potential for increased violence in the wake of the recent development. Terrorist attacks have declined significantly since the past few years due to sustained operations by security forces and the police, but by no means is the threat entirely vanquished. In 2019, militant violence in Pakistan overall was down by 19pc over the previous year, but in KP it was no different from 2018. In fact, 91pc of terrorist attacks last year took place in Balochistan and KP: 158 acts of terrorism across the country were claimed by violent extremist groups including the TTP (which is most active in North Waziristan, Zhob and Dera Ismail Khan), JuA, HuA and other similar outfits. The HuA, whose targets largely comprise the police and security forces, is also said to possess significant resources for carrying out suicide bombings. Meanwhile, JuA, which broke away from the TTP in August 2014 has carried out some gruesome acts of mass murder, including the Easter Sunday massacre in February 2016 in Lahore which left at least 75 dead and 350 injured. Their merging with the TTP illustrates the tenacity of violent extremist elements in their effort to remain relevant and effective.

To successfully tackle such groups requires taking a broader perspective and a regional approach. In late 2019 and earlier this year, the Afghan forces and their international allies, and separately the Afghan Taliban, inflicted severe losses on the hideouts in Afghanistan of the militant Islamic State group which has carried out horrific attacks in their country. However, much of the TTP, along with the two groups that have returned to its fold, remains comfortably ensconced in that country, mostly in Kunar, Nangarhar and Khost provinces. President Ashraf Ghani’s government must realise that while the TTP’s malevolence is directed at Pakistan today, tomorrow — if strategically advantageous — his homeland could be in its cross hairs. The need for cross-border collaboration in the fight against terrorism cannot be stressed enough.

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2020