There will be heartbreak in PTI. When you are the ruling party, and you have just strengthened your position against your opponents, and you have the largesse of the government at your disposal, and a large band of people who have warred with ferocious ambition, and the Senate elections are but a few weeks away, and there are tickets to be distributed, and the line of warriors circles around the Red Zone — then, be warned — heartbreak house is across the bend for many aspirants.

That’s the story swirling around town in the wake of the PDM train wreck. The PTI train is chugging along, belching smoke and bravado. Next stop: The Senate. Who gets down and who jumps in? The platform is jam-packed with starry eyed men and women jostling to have the ear of the men who matter.

There is the obvious list. High-profile functionaries in the PTI government who have repeatedly, consistently, and often at the cost of their dignity, fought pitched battles on behalf of their boss. They have participated in decision-making at the highest level, gone the extra mile to implement such decisions, bowed to every whim and fancy of their superiors, and overshadowed most established political names within the rank and file of the PTI. A Senate ticket is the reward they expect. This would legitimise their political weight and ensure a career continuity for the next six years. They would then be seen less as political paratroopers ready to pack up and leave at the first sign of trouble, and more as bona fide politicians invested into the system, and into the future of their party.

That, at least, is the flow of logic.

But there is a twist in the tale. The numbers generate their own logic. As listed in an excellent story by Amir Wasim in this paper, PTI is expected to become the largest party in the Senate but it will not be in a position to command a majority in the up­­per house without the support of its allies.

In fact, even with all the allies added up, the ruling coalition will still be a few seats short of gaining an absolute majority. If all members of the Senate’s electoral college vote for their own party, the PTI could bag as many as 21 seats in these elections, bringing its total membership of the house to 28. With so many seats up for grabs, the list of aspirants for the PTI ticket is long.

Red Zone insiders say some candidates are almost guaranteed PTI tickets for the Senate. These include Adviser on Finance Hafeez Sheikh, chairperson of Ehsaas programme Dr Sania Nishtar and PTI party officeholder Saifullah Nyazee. There is a general acceptance within the party on these names. They know Prime Minister Imran Khan is keen on these three people.

In recent days, however, some things have changed. Insiders say that a few people have offered advice to the prime minister and he seems to have been receptive to their arguments. These people have said that those aspirants for the Senate ticket who are already part of the cabinet, and are holding executive portfolios including as advisers and special assistants, should not be given preferential consideration.

In fact, these people have suggested to the prime minister that these advisers and special assistants should not be considered unless absolutely essential — like Hafeez Sheikh and Sania Nishtar — and the party should bring into the Senate loyalists who have remained outside the Red Zone so far. This way, they argue, PTI will have itself a longer batting line up.

The prime minister is said to have appreciated the logic of the argument.

PML-N is also experiencing its own brand of senatorial stress. With five seats at best for this election, the party has to figure out whom to retain and whom to let retire gracefully. Raja Zafarul Haq is the leader of the opposition in the Senate and also enjoys the lofty title of the chairman of PML-N. Can the party let him retire?

Pervez Rashid, former information minister and one of the closest advisers to Maryam Nawaz Sharif is also retiring. Party insider say he will most certainly get the ticket. Mohammad Zubair, former Sindh governor and currently spokesman for Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, is also a hot favourite for the Senate ticket.

Mushahidullah Khan, firebrand loyalist is also retiring. He’s been having health issues too. Can the party deny him a ticket?

Party dynamics within both PTI and PML-N are manifesting themselves in these upcoming Senate elections. Within PTI, the tension between non-elected advi­sers and elected representatives continues to ebb and flow with the pace of events.

This fault line is supplemented with another one: those within the party who draw strength from their original roots in PTI versus those who tend to constantly seek validation and nourishment from the establishment. This fault line is also coming alive as aspirants for the Senate app­r­oach their respective power centres to get a nod for a ticket. These pulls and pushes are getting more intense with each passing day.

Inside the PML-N, too, aspirants are venturing to garner support from their power sources. With the hardline group ascendant and the Shehbaz group having retreated into the background, aspirants with a direct line to Nawaz Sharif stand a much better chance to get the nod. Of course, in both cases, the leaders — Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif — will approve the final names, but lobbies that today have greater access to their leader are looking more effective in getting their people the ticket.

The subtle noise of this lobbying got louder when the PDM voice quietened down in the last two weeks. With the PDM holding a crucial meeting today to determine the future course of action, some light and heat could be generated before the Senate elections. However, since the PDM has already announced that it will be participating in the elections, whatever happ­ens — including the long march that is ex­­p­ected to figure prominently in today’s mee­ting — will take place not before April. Till then, it seems, the Senate elections will re­­main the centre of attention — and tension.

Heartbreaks are around the bend.

Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2021