Just when the government thought it was cruising…

The last few days have rattled people inside the Red Zone. Many are attempting to put up a brave face, but they know Shehbaz Sharif’s NCA ‘coup’ has upended many political calculations. He may have scored an equaliser in the dying minutes of the game. Can the government up its game in the extra time?

Read: Shehbaz insists he’s cleared of graft charges; govt claims otherwise

Here’s where the situation gets a bit complicated. Wedded to the legal aspect of the NCA affair is the political spinoff that is now whirling up some speed. What we know so far is that the UK’s National Crime Agency was investigating the money trail of transactions by Shehbaz and his son Suleman Shehbaz since the end of 2019. In his press conference on Wednesday, Shehbaz read from official NCA documents to prove that the Asset Recovery Unit (SRU) of Barrister Shahzad Akbar had initiated the request to NCA to launch a probe against him and Suleman. Once the NCA formally launched an investigation to determine if the two had indulged in money laundering, their two UK bank accounts were frozen. After 17 months of probing, the NCA finally concluded there was no evidence that Shehbaz and Suleman were involved in any impropriety involving their financial dealings in the UK, Dubai and Pakistan. A court ordered their bank accounts to be restored.

The government ministers have been mumbling some vague retorts after Shehbaz’s presser but it is fairly apparent today that the NCA’s clean chit to the PML-N president has put the government in a very tight spot. This may have consequences far beyond the unfreezing of two accounts.

Here is where the political aspect comes into play. The problem with perceptions is that they can change as easily as they are formed. The PTI government had been successful these last few months in manufacturing a perception that it had acquired strength and resilience through improved performance and greater stability. This perception was fuelled by a potent narrative that the opposition was falling apart under the weight of its own multiple contradictions while Prime Minister Imran Khan had emerged as the only viable national leader in Pakistan. Post-budget, PTI was not just boasting it would complete its term, its leaders were claiming the next five years were also theirs.

Editorial: While the PML-N struggles with its dual narrative, Shehbaz is buckling up for the next election

Many in the opposition too had started to believe them. There was a growing concern within the rank and file of the PML-N that the party was going into the next electoral battle without a clear leader, without a clear outlook, and without a clear plan. They were stumbling into a fight blindfolded and their hands tied behind their backs. With PDM reduced to a shell of its original self, and the PPP charting its own course, the PML-N — it seemed — had found enough time and energy to start cutting its nose to spite its face. “We have no idea what we are doing and where we are going,” a senior PML-N leader had remarked last week. A few days later, Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Shehbaz validated his concerns by publicly contradicting each other on the army chief’s extension issue.

There was another concern too. PML-N insiders were whispering that Shehbaz’s mission to soften the establishment was coming up empty. If there were any dividends, they were not visible. “No one in the party knows what’s happening between Shehbaz and the ‘boys’ and we all are also just guessing,” remarked a party parliamentarian. If this sounded like a complaint, it was meant as such.

But even those who were grumbling inside the party acknowledged that if anyone had a plan, it was Shehbaz. His elder brother and niece were recognised as the electoral heavy lifters, but their plan was to go head on against the present set-up, Rawalpindi included. The Shehbaz group maintained this was recklessness more than it was a plan. But what was the Shehbaz plan remained a mystery to most. It still does.

There was a burden around this mystery. It weighed down prospects of Shehbaz being acknowledged as an alternative to PM Imran. Cabinet ministers argued even in private that the case against Shehbaz and Suleman was watertight. It is because they grudgingly saw him as a genuine alternative to their leader that they strived to go the extra mile to demolish his reputation. Shehbaz combined competence with ‘acceptability’ to the establishment, and this was absolutely not acceptable to the PTI high command.

The NCA validation has put him back in the saddle. The timing could not have been more significant. The government’s carefully crafted perception of confidence, competence and longevity has begun to come under strain. Three factors are responsible: (1) inflation refusing to abate with electricity and gas surcharges spiking dangerously; (2) political tension in the country rising with the government opening up multiple fronts against the ECP and the opposition over electoral reforms with no real solution in view; (3) ominous warnings coming from the United States with a Senate bill threatening possible punitive measures against Pakistan.

On the face of it there is no connection between Shehbaz’s strengthening position and the perfect storm brewing around these three factors. Yet, there are quiet rumblings that Pakistan is heading into turbulence. Navigating this turbulence on all fronts — economic, political and diplomatic — is becoming a challenge that may require stability and governance, both of which appear to be in short supply.

The government on Wednesday bulldozed its way through sheer numbers in the National Assembly to send the electoral reforms bill to the joint session of the parliament so it can force its way on the issue of EVMs and voting for overseas Pakistanis. The country should be bracing for an all-out political war just when dark clouds are gathering on the external front. The referee has not blown the whistle but extra time is approaching.

Just when the government thought it was cruising….

Published in Dawn, September 30th, 2021