As we all wade knee-deep through the slush of the wedding season, politics outside the marquees is resonating to an uncertain beat. The power matrix tells its own story from inside the Red Zone. Here goes:

1. Today’s date is seared into our collective memory. Six years ago the heart-wrenching tragedy of the APS Peshawar attack happened on this day. Fifty years ago, Pakistan lost its eastern wing on this day. Both events have had a lasting impact on the nation’s politics and psyche, and both continue to shape and reshape our national discourse with the ebb and flow of time. The APS issue has picked up momentum with the parents of the martyred students appealing to the Supreme Court and the court summoning Prime Minister Imran Khan to explain why action hasn’t been taken against senior officials. However officials insist that all the terrorists who were directly involved in the attack have been arrested and brought to justice.

2. The larger question though remains open to debate: has Pakistan done all that it had vowed to do through the National Action Plan? There is no doubt that post-APS Pakistan swung into action and succeeded in smashing the TTP network on home soil. The terror infrastructure was uprooted, thousands of perpetrators apprehended or killed in operations and TTP’s ability to launch attacks across the country severely degraded. It was a remarkable success in more ways than one, exemplified by the single-minded focus of the military and the massive support of public opinion that had overwhelmingly turned against TTP and other terror outfits after the APS tragedy. However, the National Action Plan gradually lost momentum and many of the long-term strategies fell by the wayside. The resurgence of the TTP threat — still at a very nascent stage — should re-focus attention on the plan and how the state must get back in the saddle and finish what it had promised to do us six years ago.

3. The fifty-year mark of the truncation of Pakistan and the birth of Bangladesh remains one of the darkest chapters in our seven-decade long history. However, this year the state is pushing aggressively against the established narrative of that period in a bid to reframe the discourse — to the extent possible — so that history can be reviewed and re-interpreted from another angle. Burning questions of that day — casualty figures, issue of Biharis, role of India, motives of the East Pakistan leaders and of course the decisions, oh those decisions, of the West Pakistan leaders — all these are now under a fresh microscope. It is hard to tell what will find traction and what will not, but five decades is a long enough time for all stakeholders to be able to take a relatively dispassionate look at those momentous events and draw the right conclusions that can chart a better course for the next fifty years.

4. These weighty issues weigh not that much on the political scale as the news cycle jumps from one issue to another in the absence of an oversized topic that usually devours national attention. The latest in a long line of tactical controversies this week has been the controversy triggered by the competing and quasi-contrasting statements of PML-N leaders Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Mohammad Zubair. The media lapped up the juicy controversy — wedding season does starve the media for meaty political stories — and played it up for the analysts to sink their teeth into it and tear off a thick chunk. But there’s much that has been missed by most who are commenting on the matter.

5. The way the controversy is being framed is thus: Shahid Abbasi said Shehbaz Sharif is the party’s candidate for the prime minister in the next elections while Zubair refused to be so categorical and said Maryam Nawaz’s cases are very weak and once she is cleared of them she will be eligible to run for elections. The insinuation being read into this is that she will therefore be eligible to be the party’s choice for the next prime minister. What has added fuel to this fire is the well-established difference of narrative between Shehbaz and Maryam Nawaz and how it continues to divide the party rank and file even as elections draw near.

6. There is clearly an element of ambiguity ingrained within this issue. According to Red Zone insiders however, the ambiguity is nothing new. What may be new is the relative clarity with which Shahid Abbasi answered the question. However, his answer is strictly not wrong. Shehbaz is in fact the president of the party and this automatically makes him the obvious choice for the prime minister’s office if the party wins the elections. The other aspirant, Maryam Nawaz, currently stands disqualified and therefore at this point cannot be the candidate. Shahid Abbasi could have been evasive with the answer. The fact that he chose not is perhaps one reason why the issue flared up. We demand clarity and when we get it, we complain.

7. Mohammad Zubair also did not deny what Shahid Abbasi said but added an opinion that Maryam Nawaz may be qualified to run for elections in 2023 (or whenever the polls take place). He did not say she would be the candidate for the prime minister’s office but that she would most likely be able to run for a seat in the parliament. The headlines went a bit further than what he had actually said and pegged the issue on the sense of what he had said. The sense may be correct, possibly, but his words did not spell this literally. The controversy therefore is a bit unfair on both the gentlemen.

8. But it does not take away from the fact that the simmering duality within the party will need to be addressed at some point before the elections. Party insiders say there is now a growing body of opinion within the rank and file that Shehbaz’s candidature would ease PML-N’s journey back to power. However, the same people who argue this also acknowledge that Maryam Nawaz would have to campaign along with Shehbaz if the party wants to charge up its voter base and get people to come out in large numbers. It is the ideal combination, but it is far from turning into a reality.

9. This reality will need to be forged by one man sitting in London. So far he has not spoken his mind. However, according to insiders, there is now a gentle move afoot to nudge the leader to make a decision. The senior leadership of the party is getting more vocal that indecision is costing the party precious time and bleeding precious political capital at a time when a timely decision can open up opportunities in the short term also.

10. The slush of the wedding season will drain out over the weeks and drag the focus back to partisan politicking. The PML-N has allowed itself the opportunity to deck up and sway to the songs of matrimonial bliss. The shimmering dresses and sparkling smiles may have disguised the edginess that lurks within its ranks, but the time is not far off when the party will need to return to the question that haunts it most.

If it cannot address the question with the clarity and seriousness it deserves, then the last people to face the blame should be Shahid Abbasi and Mohammad Zubair.

Published in Dawn, December 16th, 2021