HAVING lost the ability to step back and focus on the big picture, political analysis in the country now consists mainly of a zoomed in look at the minutiae and drawing conclusions from that, whether credible or otherwise, so here is today’s edition for you.

Let’s start with a media briefing and an interview. The briefing was by DG ISPR Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar who told the media of the armed forces’ resolve to complete the border fencing of the Durand Line, notwithstanding the objections of the Afghan Taliban.

He described the tearing down of the fence by the Taliban in a couple of publicised incidents as ‘localised issues’ and said the work will continue.

Dangerous as this Taliban intransigence can turn out to be, especially since the ceasefire announced by their Pakistan arm, the TTP, has now ended and attacks are picking up pace in which our brave soldiers are again having to offer the ultimate sacrifice to protect our territory, the media focussed on the other issue raised in the briefing.

When the PM and the spokesman for the military both say that relations between the two are fine, even ideal, why is there room for speculation?

Responding to a question, the DG ISPR rubbished as media speculation talks of a ‘deal’ with PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif as the first step to change in Islamabad. Over the past weeks, the prime minister too has lashed out at the former prime minister saying the latter was seeking a deal to return to the country.

Read: PML-N doesn’t need any deal, says Maryam Nawaz

It was unclear whether the DG’s remarks were aimed at the country’s chief executive when he said ‘ask this question of those who talk about such things’ or merely at TV analysts who have been talking of a deal with the PML-N after the breakdown of the ‘one-page’ hybrid consensus.

The delay in notifying the change at the ISI by the PM is said to have triggered this latest tension. But Gen Babar was keen to quell any questions on the civil-military discord by describing his institution as ‘subservient to the government’ and one that acts in line with its directives.

He was also keen to put a lid on questions regarding another possible extension to Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, who is on his second three-year tenure: “I requested you earlier not to indulge in such discussions and not to talk about such baseless speculations,” he said.

Zoom out of this briefing and zoom in on the prime minister’s widely reported interview to Dunya News anchor Khawar Ghumman, in which he echoed the DG ISPR’s views on civil-military relations, describing them as ideal.

On the question of another possible extension to the army chief, Imran Khan said that when November (when Gen Bajwa is due to retire) was so far away then ‘why is there worry [concern] about the extension...’. Whether this was signalling was not clear, as he did not articulate an unequivocal position on the issue.

When the prime minister and the spokesman who speaks on behalf of the military and its chief both say that relations between the two are fine, even ideal, why is there room for speculation? Well, simply because the reports of contentious issues between them are not merely speculative but based on informal, non-attributable ‘briefings’ to journalists by sources close to centres of power.

Given what we believe to be the case, and what the main players say on record, how does one ascertain the reality as it stands? Zoom in on a number of other developments and statements and see whether they support your own thoughts on issues, or the official, on-the-record accounts.

For example, anyone who has followed the political career of one of PTI’s erstwhile pillars, Jahangir Khan Tareen, will know that the wealthy agriculturist-industrialist does not stray far from the establishment’s position on key political matters.

His political career was nurtured under the watchful eye of retired Gen Pervez Musharraf. He served as adviser to Punjab chief minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi from 2002-2004 (after being elected MNA on a PML-Q ticket) before being elevated to the federal cabinet where he remained till 2007.

Having entered the National Assembly in 2008 on a PML-F ticket, Tareen later joined the PTI in 2011 when the then DG ISI Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha was accused of encouraging members of different political parties to jump ship and join Imran Khan’s party.

Everyone is aware of the role he played, in tandem with powerful quarters, to ensure a parliamentary majority for the PTI after the 2018 elections when the party fell short of getting an absolute majority on its own.

His subsequent estrangement with the PTI is too recent and the reasons too fresh in every mind, so no point in wasting column inches over that. What does need a mention is that he has demonstrated his support within the current parliamentarians supporting the government.

That in turn means he can potentially provide the numerical support to the opposition to enable it to pull the rug from under the governing party’s feet. Is he prepared to do that or whether he has already been asked to do so by people he is never known to say no to isn’t clear as we speak.

What is clear, however, is the statement he made this week when he attended the wedding of PML-N leader Saad Rafique’s daughter. Asked by a journalist whether ‘your jahaz [plane, meaning Tareen himself] could head towards the PML-N too’, he flashed a big smile and said: ‘The plane can fly in any direction … I am here to attend a wedding ... we’ll see what happens next, Inshallah. What will happen, will happen.’

The need to continue to zoom in remains as zooming out leaves one none the wiser. One can say all isn’t well for the government of the day but what one cannot say is whether the state of the economy, mismanagement and political instability due to the accountability witch-hunt will weigh heavy, pull the government under, or another extension will ensure mutual longevity.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2022