As Pakistan enters the wheat deficit regime once again, some fear for the foreseeable future leading to researchers and dietitians looking for supplementary alternatives. They believe that mixing a limited quantity of maize flour in wheat flour can be an option. They cite production factors (science, environment, market, ground reality, and farmers’ awareness) favouring maize to build their argument and plead: “Why not take benefit of it all and enrol maize in the national food security and staple picture?”

The search for supplementary options is quickened by the wheat failure. According to calculations by these advocates, Pakistan faces a deficit of around three million tonnes if the last three years’ import pattern is a guide. Increasing acreage to add to national production is almost impossible now as all competitors are winning against wheat. Rather, maintaining the existing area is a challenge that Pakistan is losing fast. This season alone, Punjab lost 500,000 wheat acres (as compared to last year) to oilseed crops and now fears that it may translate into yield loss of 2m tonnes if 21.9m tonnes target it is a benchmark.

Increasing national production by improving per acre yield is a strategy that is advocated, planned and tried without success for decades; thanks to the failure to organise the seed sector and develop any better performing seed. Regular marketing failure and the ever-increasing cost of production are further addition to wheat woes.

About 10pc maize mixed with wheat at the grinding stage would offer about 3m tonnes of wheat relief — exactly equal to the wheat deficit — and thus remove import compulsions

Compare it with maize’s success. According to the Punjab Crop Reporting Service data, the province has seen its production jumping by over 10 times — from 794,000 tonnes in 2000-01 to 8.04m tonnes last year. In the same period, its area increased from a little over 1m acres to 2.3m acres — an increase of 130pc in the area leading to a 1,000 per cent jump in yield.

It all happened because of the hybrid seed breakthrough, which has increased per acre production from 20.39 maunds per acre in 2000-01 to 85.75 maunds last year. The researchers argue that hybrid potential is still double what Pakistan is getting.

“If the Federal Committee of Agriculture (FCA) fixed a target of 9m tonnes from 1.4m hectares this season, it can easily get closer to 20m tonnes from the same amount of land if the full hybrid potential is realised,” says Muhammad Anwer — a maize trader from Lahore. “These numbers generate a lot of hopes in maize, where wheat watchers are now trying to find some refuge.”

The worsening wheat failure becomes a national worry when reflected in food insecurity figures. As per the National Nutritional Survey (2018), 36.9pc Pakistanis are food insecure. Out of them, 18.3pc are severely insecure. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, food insecurity was well over 50pc. Empirical evidence suggests that since 2018, this picture must have worsened.

The Global Hunger Index (2021) paints an even bleaker picture when it put Pakistan at number 92 in a list of 116 countries when it comes to food insecurity. The GHI calls this situation “serious.” In more detail, it says 40.2pc children under the age of five are stunted, 28.9pc are underweight and 53.7pc are anaemic. All these figures add urgency to find a solution to the crisis.

Apart from this data, National Food Security Policy lists high population growth, rapid urbanisation, low purchasing power, high price fluctuation, erratic food production and an inefficient distribution mechanism as additional challenges.

Leading the current effort to look for a dietary alternative is Pak-Korea Nutrition Center, working at the University of Agriculture (Faisalabad). It argues that the three leading staples across the globe include corn (19.5pc), wheat (15pc) and rice (16.5pc). In Pakistan, 52pc of the daily caloric intake comes from wheat, 14pc oil, 13pc dairy, 10pc sugar and some 3pc from meat. Maize here is missing. Though it is consumed in some parts of the country as one of the staples along with maize flour, it is missing in the national scheme of things.

“That is precisely where the centre is trying to suggest a role for maize,” argues Dr Iqrar Khan, vice-chancellor of the university. Even if 10pc maize is mixed with wheat at the grinding stage, we are talking about close to 3m tonnes of wheat relief — exactly equal to the wheat deficit — that removes import compulsions. The idea is worth exploring, Mr Khan insists.

The government needs to allow it under a policy framework that regulates mixing, he adds. There are a number of reasons for maize recommendation. Firstly, its price — maize has historically been almost half of the wheat price, which may help control rapidly and ever-increasing wheat flour price.

Even at 20pc mixing, which neither affects the quality nor violates dietary habits, it could correspondingly bring down the price. Currently, the wheat price has gone up to Rs2,700 per maund and maize is hovering around Rs1,300 for the same quantity.

Science favours maize experiments as well. Its national production has multiplied, but the potential is there for doubling the quantity with a minimum of technological intervention. Studies into amino acids of both also put maize above wheat. To top it all, it is glutton free. “It is not, in any way, to suggest that we can take eyes off wheat. Its importance is huge and it would stay. What we are suggesting is that maize can be cast in a minor role to take pressure some pressure off wheat and it should be done through policy and regulatory mechanism to avoid confusion and mess,” Dr Khan advises.

“In fact, it is already being done by some unscrupulous elements in the milling industry,” concedes Majid Abdullah — a miller from Lahore, who owns one of the major flour bands. Up to 10pc mixing is neither felt in taste nor in visual quality. It can certainly be done through a policy and it will be easier to implement because the government provides wheat for the better part of the year and oversees the entire grinding process. So, it is more of a policy matter rather than social acceptability, marketing or any other factor for that matter, he assures.

“The government should do it for filling people’s belly if nothing else,” says an official of the food department. Wheat has been under pressure for the last few years. Fluctuation in world wheat price, freight charges, propitious import opportunities, all put additional pressure on the domestic market. If maize can provide some kind of insulation, why not?

But then it would be a huge task as well, which involves technology up-gradation (chakis can grind wheat, not maize) and a monitoring system to avoid the mixing of any other material. There are reports of rice flour mixing to neutralise the yellowness that maize causes. All this would have to be done before the policy shift, he concludes.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 7th, 2022