LAHORE: A massive potato harvest expected in Punjab has alarmed federal and provincial policy circles who are wondering what to do with the likely overproduction in the next few weeks.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture had fixed a target of 5.96 million tonnes of the crop for Punjab on 546,000 acres – an average of 273 maunds per acre. However, according to the Punjab Crop Reporting Service, the acreage has grown up to 740,000 acres — an increase of around 35.90 per cent — this year.

“Now, the fear is that if this 36pc addition in acreage translates into a corresponding increase in production, Punjab alone will be looking at a staggering 8.5 million tonnes of potato – leading to a huge glut and an equal, if not more, price crash,” warns Muhammad Ramzan, a farmer in the potato belt.

A very realistic but threatening scenario is emerging, giving farmers and planners sleepless nights. The crop has escaped a frost threat, which usually causes a 5-6pc dent to the final figure; weather cooperated with the crop throughout its lifecycle. So, the size of the potato crop, by all means, is going to be a record this season, testing the nerves and planning capacity of all those involved in the process. The farmers are the most fearful, Ramzan says.

Officials say govt may have to deal with 3m tonnes of excess crop this year

Maqsood Jatt, chairman of the Potato Research Board, paints an even bleaker picture, saying the official and their own figures have got it all wrong. He claims it has been an old argument of farmers that the Crop Reporting wing underreports both the acreage and yield because of the reporting mechanism.

According to the Potato Research Board’s estimates, the acreage is much higher — at least another 100,000 to 150,000 acres — and the yield is going to be closer to a million tonnes. All official bodies have vested interests in underreporting in order to save the government as any excess production will have to be disposed of or bought by the authorities, which will increase pressure from potato growers. The actual situation is going to be more precarious and the farmers would pay the cost, he warns.

“The Commerce Ministry has recently received an SOS call from Punjab, asking it to prepare a contingency export plan,” concedes a ministry official.

The problem is that Pakistan has never exported more than 550,000 tonnes, which was during 2018-19. In the next two years, they fell to 339,000 tonnes and 314,000 tonnes, respectively. This year, if the national consumption of around 5.5 million tonnes is deducted, Punjab will have to deal with around three million tonnes of overproduction — equal to the total average provincial production between 2011 and 2015. This is an emergency scenario, demanding contingency planning.

Waheed Ahmed of All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters, Importers and Merchants Association (PFVA) says that “although the association can help deal with the situation to a certain extent, it won’t be able to do anything if enlisted after the event.

Export development is a painfully slow and lengthy process, where one scans and finds global markets, locates buyers, develops brands, sets shipping and banking channels and establishes credibility. All these steps require a long-term strategy; exporters cannot be engaged during the glut and told to clear it. Since potato is an export commodity, the PFVA has been requesting the federal government to prepare a strategy, a shipping policy and laws so that freight issues are resolved.

Sit with the governments (Indonesia and the Philippines in particular) that have imposed quarantine conditions and solve any issues hampering exports, study individual markets and open new channels. Pakistan has offered a $200 million credit line to Sri Lanka, but the potato part is negligible.

Each year, Pakistan imports a massive quantity of seed from the Netherlands, but exports to Europe are next to nil. China is a huge producer and importer. Can’t Pakistan grow Chinese seed here and then export to it? All of this can be possible through policy and planning”, he pleads.

If the association has no idea about the acreage in a particular year, the expected production, national consumption and how much is going to be national surplus, how can exports be planned, Waheed questions.

“Governance issues, port problems, dollar fluctuation, differing dollar rates, all of these are additional issues that exporters deal with on a daily basis,” complains Muhammad Jamal, an exporter from Lahore.

Pakistan has the most expensive ports; almost a deterrent to trade. Interbank dollar rate becomes irrelevant and an additional cost when freight charges are levied at the open market rate. Pakistan buys billions of dollars of edible oil from the Far East, but has not been able to send potato to those countries. Rather they have been stopped due to quarantine issues.

All these issues would keep afflicting this very exportable vegetable and maintain a glut within the national borders, he explains, precisely because of which Pakistan’s share in a $4.9 billion global potato market is just $115 million.

Published in Dawn, February 20th, 2022