PARIS: France on Saturday prepared for the first round of presidential elections projected to produce a run-off rematch between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen that will be far tighter than their duel five years ago.

All further political activity by candidates was banned on the final day before polls open in mainland France at 0600 GMT on Sunday, after a campaign overshadowed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

French overseas territories will begin voting earlier to take account of the time difference, starting with Saint Pierre and Miquelon off the coast of Canada at 1000 GMT Saturday.

Territories in the Caribbean, the Pacific and finally the Indian Ocean will follow before polling stations open in mainland France.

Polls predict that Macron will lead Le Pen by a handful of percentage points in round one, with the top two going through to a second round on April 24.

But analysts warn that the outcome remains highly volatile with uncertainty remaining over turnout and some observers fearing a quarter of the electorate may stay away in a possible record boycott of the vote.

Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is snapping at their heels in third and still fancies his chances of reaching the second round at the expense of Le Pen or even -- in an extraordinary upset — Macron himself.

Although her opponents accuse her of being an extremist bent on dividing society, Le Pen has with some success during the campaign sought to show a more moderate image and concern with voters’ daily worries such as rising prices.

Macron by contrast has campaigned relatively little, by his own admission entering the election campaign later than he would have wished due to the war in Ukraine.

If Macron and Le Pen as forecast reach the second round, analysts predict that their clash will be far tighter than in 2017 when the current president thrashed his rival with 66 per cent of the vote. “There is an uncertainty ahead of the first round,” said French political scientist Pascal Perrineau, pointing to unprecedented high numbers of voters who were still undecided or who had changed their minds during the campaign as well as absentee voters.

Analysts fear that the 2002 record of the numbers of French voters boycotting a first round of 28.4 per cent risks being beaten, with the 2017 absentee rate of 22.2 per cent almost sure to be exceeded.

“We have experienced a strange campaign that was at odds with what we experienced in the past presidential elections,” Frederic Dabi, director of the Ifop polling institute, said.

The stakes of the election are high for Macron, who came to power aged 39 as France’s youngest president with a pledge to shake up the country.

Published in Dawn, April 10th, 2022