LAHORE: The Punjab has so far procured around half-a-million tonnes of wheat as harvesting in the southern part of the province picks up pace and daily arrival of the grain at the food department’s centres nears 100,000 tonnes.

According to the food department data, it had purchased 394,000 tonnes by Monday, with daily arrival touching 83,000 tonnes. Last year, the department had procured only 13,000 tonnes by April 11.

“The [wheat] arrival had surely gone beyond 100,000 tonnes by Tuesday (yesterday) and departmental stock might have swelled closer to 500,000 tonnes mark,” says an official monitoring the process.

“The department this year moved without much fanfare and quietly started the [procurement] process in the last week of March, as early onset of summer resulted in the crop’s early maturity in the southern part of the province. Luckily, as wheat arrival and its condition suggests, the crop seems to have escaped the high temperature’s impact.

Last year’s corresponding figure was just 13,000 tonnes

There are very few reports of grain shriveling in small pockets. But, overall crop seems to be healthy – at least in the south,” he claims.

Denying any administrative pressure to get the target, the department says that market conditions do not require it.

“The price in all the 13 districts of south has so far been below Rs2,150 per maund against official procurement price of Rs2,200 per maund. In such situation, no extra pressure is required. Why exert it? The process is now picking up in the central parts of the province. One hopes it will be as smooth as it has been in the south,” he hopes.

The department is getting a healthy quantity because it has not allowed purchase to the millers, says Majid Abdullah, a miller from the city. The department will allow the millers once it hits the target it assigned itself for the southern part, he says. Since procurement has not gained momentum in the central part, the millers are getting supplies from there, he adds. However, the price here is over Rs2,300 per maund so far. There are also reports of grain shrivel in central part because harvesting had already started in most parts of south when temperature rose exceptionally in mid and late March. But in the central part, the crop was caught in the high temperature cycle and seems to have suffered more than what reports from the south suggest, he says.

Mr Abdullah also hopes that with the new government taking over and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif mentioning “flour and its supplies,” the millers expect that procurement target may get revised upwards from current 3.5 million tonnes for the Punjab. He says the new prime minister has particular sensitivity about flour and he knows the business dynamics as well. So, the millers are expecting upwards revision and may see their share of purchase going down correspondingly, he fears.

The Punjab agriculture department, on its part, is hoping to harvest just a little less than what it had produced (20.90 million tonnes) last year. According to its officials, despite many negatives, weather helped the crop recover. It lost half a million acres in acreage, suffered fertiliser crisis throughout the lifecycle of the crop and later exceptional rise in mercury. But, January rains help the crop recover most of the loss and then mercifully it did not rain as much as forecast (only one spell actually came against predicted five) in March. Given all these variables, the Punjab now hopes to harvest well above the 20 million tonnes mark. Should that happen, the country may see import requirement coming down in equal measure, the department hopes.

Published in Dawn, April 13th, 2022