IMRAN Khan is down but not out. This, it seems, is the emerging consensus since he vacated Prime Minister House only to inhabit the jalsa gah.

Political conversations in Islamabad and beyond are more about him and the crowds he is pulling than the newly formed government, which is struggling to not just consolidate power but also announce its cabinet — until Monday morning, a week after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took oath, there was still no official announcement and only considerable conjecture about who will get what.

Yet, in some ways, it is all so familiar, reminiscent of the early days of the PDM when Nawaz Sharif was on a roll, naming and shaming those he held responsible for his disqualification and 2018 election ‘defeat’, in the jalsas the opposition parties were holding across the country. The focus, then too, was on how big the crowds were and what Sharif senior was going to say or not say. In those days, senior PML-N leaders would chuckle when asked about their narrative and their leader’s speeches, arguing that Nawaz Sharif was dominating the political scene, despite being in London.

Indeed, it is a staple of our politics that those in the opposition, as long as they are angry and loud, will dominate the political imagination. And so, it is with Imran Khan these days.

And this aggressive domination is also linked to the manner in which a party is thrown out. Any hint or allegation of manipulation is enough for the party to win backs its core support — from the PPP in the 1990s to the PML-N in 2018 and now the PTI. The ouster has simply galvanised the PTI support base. Had the party lasted a year longer and gone into election, it would have found it much harder to bounce back.

Every decision and every road now leads to the next election.

Though, it should be pointed out that while opinion polls in the last days of the PTI government did indicate some fall in Khan’s popularity, the downward slide was not as extensive as generally perceived. The PTI continued to be one of the two top choices of voters in all the provinces.

According to a survey by the Institute of Public Opinion Research published in The News in January this year, the party led in KP with 44 per cent, with JUI-F trailing at 17pc. In Punjab, the PML-N was the most popular with 46pc. However, the PTI remained the second choice at 31pc, despite three years of Buzdar’s rule and inflation. For comparison, the PPP trailed far, far behind at 5pc in Punjab. And, three months later, since his unceremonious departure, Khan seems to have reacquired his Teflon tendencies.

The opposition, or rather, the government, is said to be worried. As are others, who may have nudged him out. From unexplained absences, to long, rambling press conferences to interactions with the elderly, the signs are there for anyone to read, though the evidence is too circumstantial to be listed with clarity. The jury can make up its own mind.

The PML-N government has put off the petrol price hike, which it had been crying hoarse about since the PTI had announced it. However, their own statements suggest the delay can only be temporary. And while the PPP is bargaining long and hard for this and that, it has not asked for finance — not out of the goodness of its heart but perhaps because it wants the Noonies to bear this burden alone, as did the PTI earlier.

However, the opposition and others can take heart from the fact that Khan will eventually run out of steam, as did the PDM. There are diminishing returns to the spectacle of rallies and speeches, and on their own they cannot force an election. But this is not entirely good news. The longer Shehbaz Sharif governs, chances are that Khan and his party will grow stronger — for, governance matters, especially the high fuel prices, will take their toll on the PML-N. And frankly, every decision and every road now leads to the next election.

And this is worrying for the PML-N, more than the other parties, though Maulana sahib should also be very concerned about the mood in KP.

Editorial: New PM’s challenge

As things stand, at the moment, electorally the PPP, PML-N and PTI dominate one province each — Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa respectively. If there were any doubts created about KP by the first phase of the local government elections, these have been laid to rest by the second. The PTI should not have any issues sweeping the elections here, next time around too.

The situation for the PPP in Sindh, too, is the same.

In other words, the proverbial battleground will be Punjab, where the PML-N does monopolise central Punjab. But the north and the south have and will determine who makes it to Islamabad and this is where the Noonies may yet face a fight.

It is now a matter of determining if the PTI has made any inroads in the province at all despite its governance record. As a PTI leader recently said, his party simply needed to retain its space in Punjab. If it doesn’t, the PML-N will be sitting pretty and if PTI does, it can be in a position to get a second chance at the centre.

The second battleground will be Karachi, where too, the recent jalsa seems to suggest that PTI has not lost all its support though this will not yield the 2018 dividends by any stretch of the imagination. However, here the determining factor may be the MQM and its ability to mobilise their voters. And like the PML-N, the MQM’s fortunes will be affected by its decision to join the ruling coalition.

Indeed, the worst may yet be over for the PTI but not for the rest.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, April 19th, 2022