LAHORE: Punjab may end up with 19.90 million tonnes of wheat, losing two million tonnes if measured against its target of 21.90m tonnes for the season, as average per acre yield drops by two per cent in the irrigated areas, especially the central districts of the province.

South Punjab fared much better this year as the wheat crop there matured before time because of early onset of summer in mid-March. Multan division leads in per acre yield with 36.19 maunds and it was closely followed by Sahiwal division with 36.15 maunds and Bahawalpur division with 36.03 maunds per acre.

However, when it came to the central districts, the average dropped drastically, with Faisalabad division ending up at 31.44 per acre, Sargodha even lower at 25.64 maunds and Rawalpindi at 23.76 maunds per acre.

Apart from the south, the barani (rain-fed) belt also performed well, with its per acre yield going up by 14.80 percent – increasing from 16.35 maunds per acre last year to 18.77 maunds this season. It could have been a disastrous situation, had the rain-fed areas and the south not performed better than the rest of the province.

“The final figures of wheat have been fluctuating right from the germination stage,” says an official of the Punjab Agriculture Department. Though Punjab started the season with high hopes, unilaterally adding one million tonnes to the federally fixed target of 20.90 million tonnes and pledging to produce 21.90m tonnes.

But, the province suffered first setback when it lost 500,000 acres in wheat cultivation area – from 16.70m acres last year to 16.20m acres this season.

Fertiliser prices and availability was the next jolt. As per statistics, the use of phosphate fertiliser -- DAP-- the most essential nutrient, slides by a whopping 40pc (from 2.2m tonnes last season to 1.5m tonnes this season), as its price spiraled out of a majority of farmers’ fiscal reach – going up from Rs4,500 per bag to over Rs10,000 per bag within a matter of weeks. The Urea price ran north as well, with its price topping Rs2,500 per bag amid supply crisis.

However, the healthy January rains compensated for the lack of fertiliser and water shortage. The first provincial crop survey rekindled hopes when it measured a crop size of 20.50m tonnes (1.4 million tonnes less than the projected 21.9m tonnes) and also showed that high temperatures during March forced the crop to mature early. Punjab, at one point (during February when prolonged dry spell hit the crop badly), was calculating the crop size to be a little less than 19m tonnes, says Malik Naeem Hotiana.

However, at the final stage, the yield in south Punjab and the rain-fed areas seem to have helped make the crop figures more respectable.

“There may still be some fluctuation in absolute figures as the current ones are based on 95pc of sample plots and average is applied to the remaining 5pc. There may be addition or deletion of 100,000 tonnes, but nothing beyond that,” he explains.

Published in Dawn, April 26th, 2022