THE showdown between the PTI-PML-Q Punjab government and the coalition in power at the Centre had been escalating for days before things came to a head and the Supreme Court decided to annul Hamza Shehbaz’s contentious election as chief minister.

Now, with Chaudhry Parvez Elahi ruling the roost, the tone of PML-N leaders has become more confrontational.

However, a recent threat made by Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah — that he would move a summary to impose governor’s rule on Punjab if he is barred from entering the province — seems to be motivated more by personal acrimony than political expediency.

Recall that ahead of by-polls on 20 seats of Punjab Assembly, the PML-N-led administration had tried to prevent the entry of PTI leaders such as Ali Amin Gandapur and Maqbool Gujjar to the province, citing concerns of potential disruptions to the smooth holding of elections if they were allowed in.

However, the ban did not work and both leaders were eventually able to not only enter but remain in Punjab.

Perhaps it was in the same vein that PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry had threatened the interior minister with a possible entry ban when his party assumed power again, something that may have incensed the former Punjab law minister.

Constitutional experts and analysts, as well as political stakeholders, believe that imposing governor’s rule is no longer a cakewalk, or at least as easy as it used to be.

PPP leader Raza Rabbani, who is considered one of the architects of the 18th Constitutional Amendment, told Dawn the amendment stipulated the need for a resolution from the provincial assembly, but that didn’t take away the powers of the federal government to independently impose the governor’s rule.

“If it does impose it on its own, the proclamation has to be placed before both houses of parliament within 10 days who then have to approve it within a stipulated time,” Mr Rabbani said.

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat) think tank that works to strengthen democracy and democratic institutions, believes the president can also issue a proclamation on his own (essentially the prime minister) but it has to be subsequently approved by a joint session of parliament. In that case it could be challenged in a court of law and eventually undone.

“This process is also difficult because at least there will be a delay of 10 to 25 days because the president has to issue the proclamation on the advice of the prime minister, and the president won’t issue it readily. He could seek a clarification and even after that it can take 10 to 25 days. So in either case, it can be delayed but not fully avoided, and during that time the Punjab government can move court for a preemptive decision,” he told Dawn.

On the other hand, former Punjab governor Latif Khosa of PPP thinks all this talk of governor’s rule is just a “political gimmick” because circumstances aren’t favourable for it right now.

“A governor’s rule is imposed under Article 232 only when a province becomes ungovernable, there’s a law and order situation, no one is safe, it’s a war-like situation, [and] there’s loot and plunder. None of this is happening in Punjab, so it’s not easy now,” he told Dawn.

Veteran journalist and political analyst Sohail Warraich abhors the very idea of such a step. “It’s like robbing a provincial government of its rights that in turn impinges on the rights of a province. It’s just a bad precedent and its spirit is undemocratic,” he cautions.

He recalls that the last time a governor’s rule was imposed on Punjab was in 2009 by the then PPP government when Nawaz and Shehbaz Sharif were disqualified by the Supreme Court from holding any public office, giving the late governor Salmaan Taseer the powers to administer the province. “Later, the apex court voided the proclamation and the Shehbaz Sharif government in Punjab was reinstated. Before that it has happened only during martial laws.”

Another reason such a decision is not as uncomplicated as some in the government may like to believe is that courts have to be convinced the circumstances are conducive for dismissing a chief minister and having a province run by the governor, who’s a state representative.

Mr Mehboob of Pildat says the courts have a very proactive role in this process. One has to prove the situation in a province is unmanageable and its affairs cannot be run according to the Constitution. “This is the basis on which a proclamation for emergency in a province is sought from the president. The proclamation suggests a province would be run by the governor. The proclamation can be issued and a governor can start taking over the functions, but this will be immediately challenged in courts where if you can’t prove there was really a constitutional breakdown in the province it will be undone.”

Mr Rabbani — whose party is now in the coalition government along with PML-N — says given the level of political rhetoric coming from both sides, in particular the PTI and PML-Q, “one really doesn’t know which way the cookie is going to crumble”. But, he believes, as of now the circumstances don’t exist for taking such drastic measures, and at the same time suggests talks to resolve any political dispute.

“Going by the rhetoric given by these two parties, a little down the line there may be circumstances for such a step to be taken. But it would in any case be a very unfortunate day because politics is the art of dialogue and coexistence regardless of your principled position. So I hope better sense prevails on the Punjab government.”

Looking at the few days since the new government took over in Punjab, the veteran politician doesn’t see meddling by any side. He says if he uses the association between the PPP’s Sindh government and PTI’s in the Centre as a yardstick, the two sides enjoyed a good working relationship and “I didn’t find any undue meddling on the part of the federal government”.

Hopefully, better sense will prevail, as Mr Rabbani puts it, across the political divide, and those in high offices will desist from using threats of creating political instability to further their personal agendas.

Published in Dawn, August 1st, 2022