Successive spells of torrential rains in Sindh have spelt disaster for the agriculture sector. The economic cost of the disaster would run into billions if the value chain is anything to go by. Among summer crops, cotton is the worst hit, bananas and mango orchards have been damaged and vegetables, particularly onion, have been washed away.

These rains are considered a repeat of 2011 when rains triggered similar flooding in lower Sindh after the 2010 super floods that destroyed seven to eight districts in upper Sindh owing to a breach in the Indus river’s dyke.

One or two pickings of cotton were carried out in the early sowing areas of Sindh. The downpour destroyed almost the entire crop in Sanghar, Naushahro Feroz, Khairpur, Nawabshah, Tando Allahyar, Mirpurkhas, Matiari and Tando Mohammad Khan. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) says 2.082 million acres of the cropped area have been damaged across Sindh.

“I believe 80 per cent of the cotton crop has been simply washed away and in terms of money, losses to the cotton crop will be no less than Rs70bn,” said Nadeem Shah, Sindh’s member of the Cotton Crop Assessment Committee and Pakistan Central Cotton Committee of the federal food security ministry. He is from the lower Sindh rain-hit Matiari district which has no drainage system to dispose of rainwater.

Earnings of cotton pickers, domestic edible oil production, and livestock feed are all casualties of the deluges, along with the textile industry

“Cotton plants are submerged under massive amounts of water and they are not likely to survive. Once the sun makes its presence felt, it will blacken the plant. In some areas cotton plants are already blackened,” he said.

A visit to the rain-hit lower Sindh districts reveals that rains that continued until August’s third week left the farming community and residents of urban centres high and dry. It forced the Sindh government to declare 23 districts to be calamity hit.

There seems to be no probability of water receding from fields quickly and easily as rainwater stagnates. Irrigation officials and growers are struggling to ensure drainage of rainwater by diverting it from one end to the other as part of ad-hoc arrangements for disposing of it through irrigation channels.

After a period of continuous decline in the cotton crop, it witnessed growth recently in Sindh, leading to the production of 3.5m bales in the 2021-22 season when compared to 1.8m bales in 2020-21. It was grown over 539,000ha against the sowing target of 640,000ha. Losses to the cash cotton crop mean economic losses to farm labour as well as cotton pickers. The pickers, mostly women, will lose an important source of seasonal earnings.

Some picking this season was done before the rains. Sindh agriculture department assesses close to 100pc losses to the remaining cotton crop. Delay in dewatering from farmlands will have serious implications for the sensitive cotton crop. Standing water blackens the crop. Those still having clean picking will be among the luckier ones. They would be getting Rs10,000 plus rate for 40kg.

Widespread damage to the cotton crop will certainly undermine the entire value chain. Seed in phutti will be lost besides the crop. The seed is a source of domestic edible production. Its waste (oilcake) is a source of livestock feed.

Cotton seed or benola is a vital source of edible production domestically. According to the former chairman of Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Dr Yusuf Zafar, cotton crop seeds provide 70pc of total domestic edible oil production.

“Only 30pc of Pakistan’s edible oil is achieved domestically and the rest is imported. Of domestic production, 70pc is achieved using cotton seeds. This is alarming as the food and edible oil import bill continues to rise,” contends Mr Zafar.

He said estimates showed that the recent damages, inclusive of losses to Balochistan’s organic cotton crop, indicate around 6-7m bales will have to be imported, costing $6-$7 billion.

Devastating rains have undermined the rural community’s economic well-being as well as inflicted mental agony and psychological trauma. Farmers will still be preparing to meet the challenges of the upcoming Rabi sowing season, provided the water recedes from fields. About 89,622 livestock has perished as per the PMDA situation report of Aug 24 in view of rains. Roughly 84,783 of 89,622 livestock has perished in the upper Sindh Kashmore district.

Herds of livestock are mostly managed by the peasantry, who have a 50-50 share in farmlands with the growers. The downpour has rendered this peasantry displaced. They have shifted to roadside improvised tents along with animals including cows, buffaloes, goats and sheep of their own.

Their villages, located on farmlands, have been inundated and their houses made of thatched straw have collapsed. Their livestock is now exposed to diseases. Carcasses of cattle were seen on the Miprukrhas-Jhuddo route which was badly hit by the overflowing canal.

About 310,039 acres in Sanghar — Sindh’s home of cotton production — followed by 247,659 acres in Shaheed Benazirabad and 247,607 acres in Naushahro Feroz districts were damaged. Khairpur district reported damages to agriculture of 214,626 acres, resulting in the loss of its date palm crop in July’s spell of monsoon rainfall.

Among veggies, the onion crop is lost. It was at bulb formation but has fallen prey to rains. Sindh makes up half of the total onion production in the country. The same goes for chilli. Its required acreage was not achieved due to water shortage, said a chilli grower Karamullah Saand from Mirpurkhas.

Irrigation authorities are struggling to cope with the situation triggered by recent rains. All off-taking calls, 14 in all, of Sindh’s three barrages remained closed due to the flood situation in the Indus river. Indus remained at high flood at Guddu and Sukkur barrages since Aug 23 till this piece was written on Friday. Up and downstream flows at the two barrages remained the same.

Farmlands were under water till Aug 27 in lower Sindh. If timely dewatering of farmland is not done it could undermine wheat sowing. The wheat crop is already facing issues. Sindh was not able to meet the procurement target of 1.4m tonnes this year. Sindh food officials were said to have taken away the 2021-22 crop from small- and medium-scale growers to meet the procurement target, leaving them without seeds to be used for cultivation this year. This would put them in quandary.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 29th, 2022