IT is in the fundamental national security interest of Pakistan that global average temperatures stabilise at 1.5 degrees Celsius. A change of 1°C has already caused serious disruptions and brought the economy to its knees. Pakistan, like many other developing countries, will simply not have the residual resilience to cope with recurring climate disasters.

For Pakistan, this has to be the single most important yardstick to measure the success of the Conference of the Parties (COP27) taking place in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, later this week. Everything else should be regarded as a secondary achievement.

Currently, we are miles away from stabilising global temperatures. A series of four landmark reports released by UN agencies during the last one week in the run-up to the climate summit have shown that the Paris Agreement has no credible mechanism in place to deliver 1.5°C or even 2°C. In fact, each report has depicted a grimmer picture than the other. These reports cast a dark shadow on the climate summit and on Pakistan’s ability to mobilise international support to recoup its estimated damage of $30 billion.

Less than 20 years ago, the world was headed for >4°C-8.5°C temperature increase by 2100. The amount of change that has occurred is phenomenal and almost unimaginable. It still needs a strong push. Let’s first see what these reports have said about our progress this year.

Read: Climate change and Pakistan

First, the Emissions Gap Report 2022 has reminded that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had indicated that carbon emissions needed to be cut by 45 per cent by 2030 for 1.5°C and 30pc for 2°C.

The existing carbon-reduction policies in the US, China, EU, India and other larger economies are utterly inadequate as these would lead to 2.8°C of warming. The pledges can, in the best scenario, reduce this to 2.6°C.

This 13th annual science-based report by UNEP has concluded that the updated national pledges since the Glasgow COP will barely shave 1pc off emissions by 2030. Since “no credible pathway to 1.5°C is in place”, the EGR has recommended system-wide transformational changes.

For Pakistan, this means changing policy planning and infrastructural development to climate-resilient adaptation standards. This will help us brace for impact like an aircraft before an emergency landing.

What have climate reports said about Pakistan’s progress this year?

Second, the Synthesis Report released annually by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is based on an assessment of the climate pledges of 193 parties under the Paris Agreement. The report has concluded that the world is “nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track towards a 1.5°C world”. Except for 24 countries, the world chose to ignore upgrading Nationally Determined Contributions to higher levels of ambition.

Pakistan and another 160 countries did not submit voluntarily updated NDCs. Even if the growth in emissions tapers, it will still increase by 10.6pc by 2030, compared to the 2010 levels. Pakistan will have its share in this increase as we have backtracked from our NDC commitments on energy, transportation and afforestation.

Third, the report on Long-term Low-emission Development Strategies, again by UNFCCC, has reviewed the plans for net-zero emissions by or around mid-century.

According to the report, these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions could be roughly 68pc lower in 2050 than in 2019, if their long-term strategies are implemented. The current long-term strategies appear to be promising as they account for 83pc of the world’s GDP, 47pc of the global population, and around 69pc of the total energy consumption in 2019. Yet, if their pledges were fully met, global temperatures would still rise by 1.8°C.

Based on information from the 53 long-term low-emission development strategies, representing 62 signatories to the Paris Agreement, their slow pace of action indicates a credibility gap, particularly since they postpone critical actions into the distant future. Pakistan is not on this list, but is expected to announce its long-term strategy up to 2060 at the climate summit.

Read: Unprepared for climate change

Fourth, the annual World Energy Outlook2022 of the International Energy Agency has reached the similarly stark conclusion that national pledges barely cut projected emissions in 2030. In fact, despite all breakthroughs in renewable energy, the global fossil fuel use has grown alongside GDP.

“The share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix in the Stated Policies Scenario falls from around 80pc to just above 60pc by 2050 … This would be associated with a rise of around 2.5°C in global average temperatures by 2100… ” There is still a large gap between today’s pledges and a 1.5°C target.

In Pakistan, the pendulum seems to have moved from KP to Sindh, or from hydropower to coal as a policy priority since the submission of the NDC in 2021.

The 2022 Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change has reminded us that this year marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the climate convention, in which countries had agreed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Yet, the carbon intensity of global energy has reduced by less than 1pc since the UNFCCC was set up, and fossil fuels still govern global electricity generation.

Renewable energy contributes only 8.2pc of the global total. At the same time, the total energy demand has gone up by 59pc, increasing energy-related emissions to a historic high in 2021. Current policies have put the world on the path to a catastrophic temperature increase.

There is no better case for pushing the global climate summit to come back to the global consensus of 1.5°C than by underlining the need to work with Pakistan to systematically undertake transformational change for climate-resilient and low-carbon development.

According to the just released Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA), developed by the government of Pakistan together with the World Bank, ADB, EU and UN agencies, the floods have pushed almost 9.1 million people into poverty and 7m will fall further behind. An additional 7.6m will now face food insecurity, 17m women and children will be at greater risk of preventable diseases, and 4.3m will face job loss and disruptions.

The sustainable recovery demands a two-track strategy: a) internationally — helping build global momentum, ambition and practical measures to stabilise temperatures at 1.5°C, and b) internally — undertaking climate-resilient development that translates the PDNA into district-level adaptation plans of action for 94 calamity-hit districts.

The writer is an expert on climate change and development.

Published in Dawn, November 3rd, 2022