AS was anticipated, the PDM parties have employed a two-pronged strategy to block the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly, which PTI chairman Imran Khan had earlier promised would be triggered on Friday. The Punjab governor has directed Chief Minister Parvez Elahi to secure a vote of confidence today, and he must also defeat a no-confidence motion moved against him by the opposition in the Punjab Assembly before he can exercise the powers he needs to dissolve the provincial assembly. While the Punjab Assembly Speaker has moved to dispose of the vote of confidence required by the governor, it is unclear whether his reasoning will stand, and a failure to secure enough votes today may just result in Mr Elahi’s ouster as CM on technical grounds. It should be noted that the Supreme Court’s May 2022 verdict on Article 63-A precludes the possibility of any dissenting lawmaker from either the PTI or the PML-Q upsetting the balance of power in the Punjab Assembly by voting against their parliamentary party’s line. Assuming that voting is held in both instances, the success or failure of both the vote of confidence and the vote of no-confidence would therefore seem to rest in the ruling coalition’s hands. That said, the PDM can also ‘convince’ enough PTI or PML-Q voters to abstain from voting. Those abstaining from the PTI would already have the prospect of being de-seated in case of victory, while PML-Q lawmakers would not have to worry as their fate would rest in Chaudhry Shujaat’s hands.

Therefore, the question is, what does Mr Elahi want, and will the PTI be able to maintain discipline and loyalty within its ranks? As regards the first question, Mr Elahi has sent out enough mixed signals over the past week or so that it seems that, just as he has on past occasions, he is milking this opportunity for far more than his party’s modest political stature deserves. As regards the second, while unsavoury ‘deals’ may be employed to turn the tide, as they have in the past, it is also up to the PTI to keep its lawmakers together. With the fate of the country’s political future now resting in its MPAs’ hands, how many will stay true to Mr Khan’s vision, and how many will break rank? It seems we must grind through what remains of this wearisome year with only more politics to numb the senses.

Published in Dawn, December 21st, 2022