Lagging far behind
There are many reasons the ruling government can indulge in the victim’s cry of ‘woe is me’ and run to international donor agencies and friendly countries. Devastated by floods and on the brink of ruin partly because of the Ukraine-Russia war that has nothing to do with Pakistan, the country’s GDP growth rate is expected to plunge to 3.5pc, according to the International Monetary Fund.
While Pakistan escaped the pandemic relatively unscathed, India has over 45m Covid cases to date — three times the population of Karachi. Despite its economy plummeting to -6.6pc in 2020, it rebounded by a GDP growth rate of 8.7pc in 2021.
Bangladesh’s GDP growth rate went down to 3.4pc in 2020 before crossing 6pc again. Sri Lanka, between the 2019 Easter bombings and the impact of the pandemic, took a serious hit to its tourism sector, which was its third largest source of foreign exchange.
If a body is healthy and strong, it can shake off a disease relatively quickly, but even a minor illness can take a frail, sickly body to the grave. Countries are the same. When a country has a strong economic base, it can withstand hardships without floating close to a sovereign default.
Pakistan’s democracy has seen several periods of military dictatorships. Since 2008, the army is no longer overtly controlling the country, but neither have political parties successfully completed one term after another.
Imagine a toddler who thinks that his toffee is always taken away. When he gets one, he will go to any length to keep it. Similarly, political leaders fear that their days in power are limited and hence opt for short-term policies that weaken the state. Decades of such policies have hallowed out the economy, leaving it lagging behind its previous peers.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 9th, 2023