KARACHI: As none of the contesting parties have got simple majority in the Jan 15 local government elections in Karachi division, two leading parties — the Pakistan Peoples Party and Jamaat-i-Islami — are dependent on the support of either each other or the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf in the upcoming mayoral election.

According to the unofficial results which the Election Commission of Pakistan is in the process of finalising, the PPP has emerged as the single largest party by bagging 93 of the total 235 union committees, where elections were held on Sunday, followed by the JI (86 UCs), PTI (40 UCs), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (seven UCs), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (three UCs), Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (two UCs), Mohajir Qaumi Movement-Haqiqi (one UC) and three independent panels won as many UCs.

There are total 246 UCs in Karachi but elections on 10 seats could not be held because of deaths of some candidates while a PPP panel returned unopposed on the remaining one UC.

First, the ECP allocates seats reserved for women, labourers, youth, minorities, transgender and differently-abled persons in proportionate to the number of UCs won by each political party to complete the City Council, which would comprise of a total of 357 members since election for the remaining 10 UCs will be held later.

After that, the mayoral election will take place, probably after a month or two, and any party that has 179 members in the City Council will get the top office. According to preliminary calculations, the number of PPP seats in the City Council will be around 142 followed by JI’s 133 and PTI’s 60.

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The PPP, PML-N and JUI-F are coalition partner in the Pakistan Democratic Movement-led federal government, but the combined votes of the three parties are insufficient to get simple majority in the City Council.

The PPP and JI, if contest the poll separately, could not get simple majority — 179 votes — even if they manage to lure council members of every party other than those of the PTI’s. And both parties will not need support from any other party if they made an alliance.

However, city president of PPP and Labour Minister Saeed Ghani had already made it clear that his party would not talk to PTI for forging an alliance in the mayoral election. He showed willingness to hold negotiation with the JI, but it is not clear whether the PPP is going to offer mayorship to the JI’s Hafiz Naeemur Rehman.

Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah told reporter in Jamshoro on Tuesday that his party was ready to work with the JI but it was PPP’s right to bring its own candidate as the Karachi mayor since it got the biggest mandate from the city.

PTI’s Firdous Shamim Naqvi had on Monday also made clear that his party would not form an alliance with the PPP saying as a last option the PTI would support the JI.

The JI and PTI have history of working together. Both parties had formed an electoral alliance in 2015 to contest the local government election in Karachi. Prior to that, the JI remained the junior coalition partner of the PTI government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The number of collective seats the JI and PTI have got clearly suggests that the two parties together can get simple majority and be able to bring their respective candidates as Karachi mayor and deputy mayor. This way, JI’s Hafiz Naeem can be easily elected as the mayor of Karachi.

As the PTI is bearing the brunt of the establishment these days, the big question is whether the JI has the guts to invite the wrath of the establishment by joining hands with Imran Khan or whether the establishment would allow the religo-political party to do so.

“At the moment we are fully focussed on getting fair results,” city JI chief Hafiz Naeem said, adding. “However, all options [about making an alliance] are open.”

Published in Dawn, January 18th, 2023