KHARTOUM: Sudan has degenerated into a battleground for two rival generals, but they are backed by complex webs of international alliances with conflicting interests that could imperil the country’s future, analysts say.

Missiles, air strikes and gunfire have been ceaseless in Khartoum since April 15 as army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan wages war with his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who leads the powerful Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group.

Amid international calls for an end to hostilities, thousands of residents fled Sudan’s capital on Wednesday as fighting between the army and paramilitaries raged for a fifth day after a 24-hour truce collapsed.

Japan has begun necessary preparations to evacuate its countrymen from Sudan, Berlin aborted an evacuation attempt, according to German weekly Der Spiegel, after three military transport planes were made to turn back. Other nations urged their citizens in Sudan to provide their names and contact details to their embassies, with the US embassy in Khartoum urging Americans to remain indoors and stay away from windows.

Thousands flee Khartoum as fighting rages; nations scramble to evacuate citizens

Around 200 have been killed and 1,800 injured, according to the UN, in the fighting between the one-time partners and authors of a 2021 coup. With a long history of coups, the impoverished north African nation enjoys a strategic location and has long been courted for its natural resources.

Gulf states to ‘pick winning side’

Abu Dhabi’s approach to the current conflict is best described as “pragmatism, pushed to the level of cynical indifference”, a specialist told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“If the war drags out, it’s not necessarily a bad thing from either a Russian or an Emirati perspective. It lets the UAE keep its influence, which it couldn’t do with a conventional power structure,” he added.

Like its fellow Gulf heavyweight Saudi Arabia, the UAE is unlikely to antagonise either general, both of whom have served Gulf interests in the past.

“Both Burhan and Hemeti fought the Huthis” as part of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015, and Riyadh offers “no real advantage for either” general, said Eric Reeves, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.

“Gulf states... will pick a winning side, but wait until victory is clear,” he added.

European support

Hemeti’s RSF emerged from the Janjaweed militia unleashed by former dictator Omar al-Bashir against non-Arab minorities in the western Darfur region starting 2003, drawing accusations of war crimes.

Hemeti’s power is the strongest in Sudan’s west, which served as a rear base to send RSF troops to fight in the conflict in neighbouring Libya, according to experts.

In a TV interview a year after the coup, Hemeti thanked Italy for its “continued technical training” but denied receiving European support to stymie irregular migration by cutting off passage to Libya.

Sudan’s west, where the RSF also holds positions on the Chadian border, is still “awash in weapons”, according to Reeves, and is critical for Hemeti, who will try “to use his connection to Chad and his power in Darfur to secure a supply line”.

On the formal diplomatic front, Burhan — as de facto head of state — is credited as the architect of the normalisation of relations with Israel. The general also looks to Egypt for support.

He attended the same Egyptian military college as Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Cairo has a vested interest in Sudan’s stability.

The two countries have strong trade links, share a 1,200-kilometre-long (745-mile) border, and have “mutual security concerns”, said Mirette Mabrouk, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Published in Dawn, April 20th, 2023