THE government is expecting a ‘bumper’ wheat harvest of 27.5 million tonnes this year. Independent reports from different wheat-growing regions in Punjab, which accounts for more than three-quarters of Pakistan’s total wheat output, also corroborate the government’s claims. With official carryover grain stocks estimated to be around 2.1m tonnes, the availability of the commodity during the new marketing year is predicted to be 29.6m tonnes. That means the country’s wheat import needs for meeting growing domestic requirements this year will come down to a million tonnes. The improved output should also somewhat impair the power of the profiteers to dictate the market and trigger price volatility. The exact production numbers, however, will not be available before harvesting is completed. Until then, the authorities must stay vigilant to ensure that they have a system in place to assess the exact production in order to plan precise imports of the cereal to cover potential supply gaps. Inaccurate forecasts provide the hoarders with an opportunity to rig the market for quick profits.

The likely improvement in crop output has given the government an occasion to brag about its agricultural policies. But we know that the country owes the predicted bumper crop to cooler temperatures over the last couple of months, especially in March, that allows the grains to grow in size. In fact, the consistently declining crop productivity demands that the government review its outdated policies in order to achieve the national food security policy goal of growing enough wheat to not only meet domestic needs but also create a surplus for exports and buffer stocks for a rainy day. For that, it will have to move away from the annual ritual of setting sowing, output and import/export targets, start implementing measures to reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture, and control market volatility. It should ensure availability of high-yield seed varieties, stabilise prices of inputs, remove curbs on the trade of wheat and other agricultural products and provide subsidised loans to smallholders to promote farm mechanisation. More importantly, the government should reduce its footprint in the market to encourage greater private participation in building storages and cold chain infrastructure to cut post-harvest waste. We need long-term, holistic policies for agriculture as a whole — not ad hoc crop-specific action — if we want to fully exploit the potential of our farm economy.

Published in Dawn, May 2nd, 2023