AS the new cold war between the US and its European allies on one side and the China-Russia alliance on the other heats up, states across the globe are recalibrating their foreign policies accordingly. And despite lukewarm public utterances about neutrality, Pakistan is also very much weighing its options, as leaked memos attributed to this country’s top leadership reveal.

Part of the so-called Discord Leaks released by an American airman, in one memo — dubbed ‘Pakistan’s Difficult Choices’ — Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Khar argues that trying to appease the West would negatively affect this country’s “real strategic” ties with China, and that Islamabad could “no longer … maintain a middle ground between China” and the US.

In another leaked document, an aide to the prime minister reportedly counsels Shehbaz Sharif against supporting a US-sponsored anti-Russia resolution in the UN General Assembly linked to the Ukraine war, warning that such a move would imperil Pakistan’s potential trade and energy relations with Moscow.

Click to see more

Indeed, it is difficult to disagree with the contents of these memos. They are based on a realistic reading of current events and future trends in international relations. While it is unwise for Pakistan to wade into bloc politics, it is even more ill-advised to cut long and deep ties with Beijing just to impress Washington.

Firstly, while relations with the US are important, it is imperative that Pakistan strives to create better relations with its neighbours. And arguably, China is Pakistan’s closest ally in the neighbourhood, which means that adopting policies seen as hostile by Beijing should be avoided.

Secondly, our foreign policy establishment — particularly the civilian and uniformed leadership — should have the foresight to see which way the geopolitical winds are blowing. Even some of the staunchest American allies in the region — India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE — have refused to take US diktat on how they should conduct relations with Beijing and Moscow.

Click to see more

For example, India, while being a member of the US-led anti-China Quad grouping, refuses to cut defence and trade ties with Russia going back to the Soviet era. Similarly, Riyadh, once a most allied ally of the US in the region, is also experiencing warmer ties with Russia and China, while ignoring US requests not to cut oil production.

This does not have to be a zero-sum game and Pakistan should strive to improve relations with America. But the relationship should go beyond turning the country into an American staging post in the region, as was the case with the Seato/Cento pacts, and Pakistan becoming a ‘major non-Nato ally’.

Improved trade with the US should be a priority, though the message from Islamabad to Washington ought to be that where containing US adversaries in the region is concerned, Pakistan is not interested.

Published in Dawn, May 2nd, 2023