FOR the first time since its founding over 50 years ago, the Pakistan Peoples Party appears to have its first real shot at the coveted office of Karachi mayor.

Although the PPP lacks a simple majority, it has emerged as the single-largest party in the 367-strong City Council — the electoral college for mayor and deputy mayor — following the Jan 15 local government elections and subsequent allocation of reserved seats.

Voting for the office of Karachi mayor and his deputy is going to be held through “show of hands” on Thursday (today) and the contestants are PPP’s Barrister Murtaza Wahab and Jamaat-i-Islami’s Hafiz Naeemur Rehman. The latter has the support of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf.

If the PPP’s performance in the Jan 15 local government election is anything to go by — it won 104 out of Karachi’s 246 union committees — the party of Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has become the most popular in the country’s commercial capital.

City Council to elect mayor, his deputy today by ‘show of hands’

It is followed by the Jamaat-i-Islami and the PTI. (The Muttahida Qaumi Movement factions had boycotted the Jan 15 election.)

According to naysayers, PPP’s success does not reflect its real support in the metropolis as the total number of its votes is fewer than that of the JI.

There were widespread allegations of rigging on the day of polling and cases are pending in courts. Moreover, MQM factions and other stakeholders accuse PPP of gerrymandering by carrying out delimitation in an “arbitrary and unjust manner”. (The allegations carry weight as the PPP, conceding the MQM-P’s demand, raised the total number of UCs in Karachi by 53.

Previous elections since 1979

It is widely believed that Bilawal Bhutto wants to make history by bringing a jiyala as Karachi mayor since his party has never won the office.

Since 1979, all previous elections had been held on a non-party basis, except those of 2023 and 2015. However, political parties participated in all elections virtually through proxies_ by making so-called apolitical groups and panels to bypass legal restrictions.

The Jamaat, which had won LG elections in 1979, 1983 and 2001, had contested the polls under the banner of Al Khidmat Group.

The Muttahida, which was then called Muhajir Qaumi Movement, had fielded its candidates from the platform of Haq Parast Group in 1987. They swept the elections in Karachi and Hyderabad.

The PPP had formed Awam Dost Group and contested partyless LG polls from this platform.

All parties, except for the MQM, had contested the 2001 local government elections under former military dictator Gen Musharraf’s devolution of power plan. Naimatullah Khan, a JI-backed Al Khidmat candidate, defeated PPP-backed Awam Dost’s Taj Haider by making a deal with the king’s party of the time, the Pakistan Muslim League-Likeminded, and became the first Nazim of Karachi.

In 2005, PPP, JI and other parties joined hands by forging the Tameer-i-Karachi Ittehad. The alliance fielded Naimatullah Khan as its joint candidate against Syed Mustafa Kamal of the MQM-backed Haq Parast Group. Mr Kamal went on to win the election and became Karachi’s nazim.

In 2015, elections were held under a new law that allowed political parties to enter the contest. The MQM swept the elections in Karachi, enabling Wasim Akhtar to become the city’s mayor by defeating the joint candidate of the PPP-led six-party alliance.

The numbers game

This time around, the PPP has nominated Barrister Murtaza Wahab as its candidate for the mayor’s election. But there is one problem. The numbers are not on his side.

The PPP has 155 votes in the 366-strong City Council (one seat is still vacant due to a withheld result). Fourteen members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and four of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (Fazl) have declared their support to the PPP. The PPP’s strength thus rises to 173. But it still needs 11 more votes to get a simple majority in the house. The Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan, which has one vote, has not declared its support to any candidate.

The combined strength of JI and PTI in the City Council stands at 192 — 130 of JI and 62 of the PTI.

But at least three PTI members are in prison and have not taken oath as UC chairmen. While the central and provincial leaderships of the PTI have ordered the party’s members to vote in favour of JI’s mayoral candidate Hafiz Naeemur Rehman, some UC chairmen belonging to the PTI have said they would abstain from voting because they don’t want to support the Jamaat.

If they stick to their decision, it would go in favour of the PPP, which is the single largest party in the house.

If no party manages to win a simple majority in the City Council on Thursday, the candidate who bags the highest number of votes will be declared the winner.

This time around, the PPP seems to have its first real shot at the office of Karachi mayor.

Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2023