AFTER keeping millions of people on tenterhooks for almost a week, Cyclone Biparjoy petered out without inflicting much damage. Sindh’s coastal districts from Karachi to Badin narrowly survived a climatic catastrophe as the cyclone swerved in the nick of time, avoiding landfall on Sindh’s coast.

Having the same trajectory and climatic features, Biparjoy brought to mind Cyclone 2A that battered Pakistan’s coastal communities in 1999. The UN estimated that the cyclone killed 189 people while 150 were missing.

More than 138,000 houses collapsed, and 675 boats disappeared. Some 15,000 cattle heads and sheep died. And 256,000 hectares (approximately 633,000 acres) of land was affected.

One conspicuous improvement this time was the early warning and continuous tracking of the cyclonic movement. The Met Office released regular updates detailing the cyclone’s movement, intensity and potential impact on different areas till it barrelled away from the Sindh coast. Effective dissemination of information through electronic and social media helped the evacuation of over 70,000 people.

Had the cyclone struck, it would have erased much of the already rickety infrastructure, including the straw huts inhabited by the poor. The coastal villages of Thatta, Sujawal and Badin lack proper living facilities.

Footage aired on TV laid bare the abject deprivation of the coastal villages and islands. Small fishing boats or small herds of cattle are their biggest assets, and these were exposed to danger. These areas present a distressing picture. Safe drinking water, sanitation, nutrition, electricity, roads, clinics and schools are conspicuous by their absence. Surviving on meagre incomes, the dwellers of these villages live a primitive life.

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A poverty survey of Badin district revealed that the homes of 48 per cent of the respondents had wooden roofs; 46pc of the people were without electricity, 60pc had no sanitation facility, and 92pc were using farm crops and animal dung as cooking fuel.

No wonder 75pc of households suffer from multipronged poverty in these three coastal districts, according to the UNDP’s Multidimensional Poverty Index. This socioeconomic profile makes coastal communities extremely vulnerable to any climate shock.

The incidence of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is rising.

Over the past two centuries, some two million people worldwide have died due to the effects of tropical storms. This region is among the areas vulnerable to tropical cyclones.

The coastlines of Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Oman, Sri Lanka and the Philippines have experienced cyclones of varying intensities. The frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has increased in recent decades.

According to a study published in the American Meteorological Society journal, 41 cyclonic storms formed in the Arabian Sea during 1979-2008, of which 23 made landfall, with tropical depression or stronger intensities.

The average lifetime of these storms was 3.4 days on a scale of one to nine. During the period 1979-2008, the average number of cyclonic storm days per year over the Arabian Sea was 4.7. Data reveals that the average cyclone period increased from 2.3 in 1979-91 to 6.4 in 1992-2008. This indicates the rising incidence of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.

Nevertheless, the world has learnt to mitigate risk to life and property. Bangladesh is an inspiring example of how improved early warning systems and appropriate infrastructure can reduce the impact of cyclones.

The country lost 718,000 of its inhabitants to cyclones in the past 50 years. However, these figures have now been drastically reduced. The Category 3 Cyclone Bhola wreaked havoc in 1970, claiming 500,000 lives.

A cyclone of similar intensity, Am­­ph­­an, caused only 26 deaths in 2020. In 1970, the country had only 42 cyc­l­o­­ne shelters; today, it has 12,000 functional cyclone she­l­ters serving 5m people. Bangladesh has remarkably imp­roved its early warning and evacuation systems. A functional and effective governance system is better able to respond to disasters.

A contrasting example is that of Myanmar, where Cyclone Nargis caused 140,000 deaths and affected some 2.5m people in 2008. Although Nargis had been forecast a week before it struck, due to the government’s slackness, the warning was not conveyed to the vulnerable communities in time.

This time, Pakistan performed better on early warning and rapid evacuation. However, more structural measures are needed to avoid damage if a cyclone strikes our coast. Increased socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities, cyclone-resilient housing, a sturdy network of roads and dykes, a dense shield of mangroves, improved cyclone shelters and better organised district disaster management authorities can provide relief if a sea-triggered disaster strikes. Preparedness is the key to avoiding death and destruction.

The writer is a civil society professional.
nmemon2004@yahoo.com

Published in Dawn, June 20th, 2023